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Hong Kong Property Market Forecast: Experts Predict Depressed Market in Second Half of 2023

view network On August 22, under the repeated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, property prices in Hong Kong continued to decline. Henderson Land Chairman Li Jiajie and Li Jiacheng pointed out in the interim results announcement that if the government does not introduce new measures in the future and there are no particularly favorable factors in Hong Kong, The real estate market will be very depressed in the second half of the year.

Henderson Land announced its interim results as of the end of June this year. The interim basic profit was 6.073 billion Hong Kong dollars, an increase of 18% year-on-year. During the period, including Sunshine Real Estate REIT becoming an associate company, it generated a net income of approximately 1.591 billion Hong Kong dollars. Taking into account the fair value loss, the reported profit increased by 24.59% year-on-year to HK$5.957 billion. Henderson Land maintained an interim dividend of HK$0.5 per share.

During the period, the pre-tax profit attributable to property sales decreased by 17% to HK$962 million, mainly due to the lower profit margins of the projects booked during the period. During the period, the total contracted sales attributable to Hong Kong increased by 10% to approximately HK$6.725 billion. As of the end of June, the total contracted sales of properties in Hong Kong was approximately HK$14.824 billion, of which HK$6.991 billion is expected to be recorded in the second half of the year as the properties are completed and delivered to buyers.

Li Jiajie and Li Jiacheng said that after the Fed has raised interest rates repeatedly, it is still not sure whether the US interest rate has peaked, saying that it still depends on future data to decide whether the interest rate still needs to be raised. As far as the impact is concerned, Hong Kong’s interest rates are forced to keep following. The interest rate in the interbank market has generally risen to more than 5% for more than a week, which has created difficulties for the operations of all walks of life. It will have an adverse impact on Hong Kong’s economic recovery and property transactions in the future.

They continued to point out that after the first quarter of this year, the property market in Hong Kong has experienced a small positive spring, and the past two months have become sluggish, the number of transactions has decreased, and the transaction price has fallen. Recently, some properties in the primary market opened at shocking prices, and property prices in the secondary market have also seen decline Obviously, if the government does not introduce new measures in the future and there are no particularly favorable factors in Hong Kong, the real estate market will be very depressed in the second half of the year.

However, they added that Hong Kong is integrated into the overall development of the country, and the sound economic development momentum remains unchanged. Real estate will benefit from this in the long run and will develop healthily and stably in the future.

Following the sale of “Henley Park” in Kai Tak and “Baker Circle Greenwich” in Hung Hom, Henderson Land plans to launch five more urban projects in the second half of this year. Together with the remaining inventory, there are expected to be about 5,660 self-occupied residential units or About 2.4 million square feet of self-occupied residential building area will be available for sale in the second half of this year; there will be about 180,000 square feet of salable office and industrial building area.

At the end of June 2023, the Group’s unaccounted-for self-occupied property contract sales in Hong Kong and the Mainland totaled approximately HK$26.427 billion, of which approximately HK$13.937 billion is expected to be recorded in the second half of the year as the properties are completed and delivered to buyers.

According to the performance report, the group has added approximately 250,000 square feet of land in the New Territories, expanding its land reserves in the New Territories to 45.2 million square feet, making it the developer with the most land in the New Territories in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong government is vigorously promoting the development of the “Northern Metropolitan Area”, and the Group will also benefit from it.

As for urban redevelopment projects in which 80% or even all of the equity was purchased, there are 27 projects, with a total occupied floor area of ​​about 3.4 million square feet. The Group already has sufficient land reserves in Hong Kong and the Mainland, which can be used for business development in the next few years.

As for rental properties, the total rental income attributable in Hong Kong (including the contribution of its subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures) increased by 3% to HK$3.311 billion, and the attributable net rental income before tax (including the share of its subsidiaries, Contributions from associates and joint ventures) also rose 6% to 2.472 billion yuan.

Among them, the international financial center project, in which the Group holds 40.77% of the attributable equity, contributed 1% to HK$860 million in total rental income during the period; the increase in rental income was mainly due to the high rental income recorded by new leases and existing tenants’ lease renewals due to rent. As of the end of June, the average occupancy rate of the Group’s main rental properties was 93%.

Henderson Land pointed out that the occupancy rate of the group’s retail property portfolio has increased, and the passenger flow and the overall business volume of tenants have also exceeded the level before the outbreak.

As of June 30, 2023, Henderson Land’s net borrowings were HK$77.855 billion, and the gearing ratio was 24.0%.

As for Henderson Development, which operates department store retail business, in the first half of the year, it was affected by the phased renovation project of Taikoo Shing APITA, which led to a decline in sales. In addition, the cancellation of social distancing measures since the end of last year has reduced customer demand for food and daily necessities in the group’s supermarkets. It turned from profit to loss, with a loss of 18 million Hong Kong dollars. Since it recorded losses in the mid-term and the whole year of 2014, it recorded another loss after 9 years. At the same time, it does not distribute interim dividends, which is the first time that the group has not distributed interim dividends since its listing.

2023-08-22 16:19:58
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