Nomisma’s estimates
Modest decline in sales, more marked decrease in loan disbursements, rising house prices. This is the scenario envisaged by Nomisma for the residential market here at the end of 2024. Compared to the forecasts made at the beginning of the year, there are slight downward corrections, but the war, inflation and the risk of a recession have so far had a lesser impact than expected and the explanation given by the study center is the housing demand at an all-time high: 3.7 per cent of households are currently looking for a house to buy and another 9.6 per cent say they intend to start searching within the year. As for sales, 2022 should close with a drop of 5.6 percent compared to the record numbers of 2021; it must be said, however, that the official revenue data for the first quarter showed an increase of 12 percent, evidently Nomisma estimates that in the second quarter there was a certain slowdown in sales activities and the sentiment of operators also goes in this direction. . A more significant decline is forecast for next year, while a slight recovery is expected in 2024. If the forecasts are respected, it still means settling above pre-pandemic levels.
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