The balance of power in the House of Representatives currently stands at 211 Republicans and 199 Democrats, but functionally it is more narrowly divided. The list of uncalled races includes two contests in California in which both general election candidates are Democrats. And the awarding of the dozen races in which one party is a clear favorite — but where the AP hasn’t made a call — adds eight seats to the Democratic Party’s tally and four races to that of the Republicans.
That would leave Republicans with 215 seats just three seats short of a majority, while Democrats would be nine seats short. But with 11 seats uncertain — six with leading Republicans and five with leading Democrats — both parties still have a shot, though the GOP is still the favorite.
Here is a district-by-district breakdown of uncalled matches as of Saturday afternoon and what could happen after:
RACE TOTAL – 11 TOTAL, GOP LEADS 6-5
Arizona-01 (before November 8 POLITICIAN electoral prognosis Rating: Skinny Republican): GOP-Rep. David Schweikert he is 4,000 votes behind Democrat Jevin Hodge. Maricopa County, which includes the entire district, is expected to drop more votes on Saturday, which could help Schweikert given the state’s trend toward a “redshift” later in the count.
Arizona-06 (thin Republican): Republican Juan Ciscomani has a narrow lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel — about 2,900 votes — in a race that has narrowed significantly since Election Day. It’s unclear whether the remaining votes in Pima County (Tucson) will help Engel close the gap completely.
California-13 (thin Republican): This seems like a cure-all: Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes Saturday afternoon with just 61 percent of the votes counted, according to The Associated Press.
California-22 (Toss Up): It’s déjà vu for Rep. David Valadao? The California Republican was so far ahead of his Democratic opponent on election night in 2018 that the AP declared him the winner, only to have his appeal dropped when Valadao withdrew weeks later. This time, Valadao (who eventually returned to Congress after winning in 2020) leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5 points, but that’s already an 8-point drop on Tuesday night.
California-41 (thin Republican): GOP-Rep. Ken Calvert he leads Democrat Will Rollins by about 2,100 votes in the Inland Empire, but it’s unclear how late-counted ballots will break.
Kalifornien-47 (Democratic Lean): Democratic Republic Kate Porter leading Republican Scott Baugh by 2 percentage points as late ballots in Orange County helped extend a narrow lead into Election Day.
California-49 (Toss Up): Democratic Republic Mike Levin he built a 4-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott.
Colorado-03 (probably Republican): GOP-Rep. Lauren Boebert he has a roughly 1,100-vote lead over Democrat Adam Frisch. Frisch must capitalize on Boebert’s lead in the final ballots to have a chance of beating her in the likely recount that will occur if the two candidates finish within half a percentage point of each other (Boebert currently leads by 0.4 points ).
New York-22 (Toss Up): Republican Brandon Williams is nearly 4,000 votes ahead of Democrat Francis Conole, who hopes Syracuse’s pending mail-in vote will be enough to put him in the lead.
Oregon-06 (TossUp): Democrat Andrea Salinas is 4,000 votes ahead of Republican Mike Erickson with 79% of districts reporting.
Washington-03 (thin Republican): Joe Kent, the Donald Trump-backed candidate who won the GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the first two primaries in August, he risks losing his seat to the Republicans. Kent trails Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by about 5,000 votes, but only 70 percent of the ballots are counted.
