The blow is greatest for Ukraine, says Oad. “It was an emerging tourist country with good, fresh energy.” Koster expects that it will take a long time before it is possible to travel to Ukraine again and compares the situation with the former Yugoslavia. There, too, it took years for the tourism sector to fully recover.
Oostdam of the ANVR agrees: “It is important that that country is rebuilt first. That will take a long time. It is such a shame, it is a beautiful country, there is so much to see in culture and history.”
Sentiment
People who would have wanted to go to Russia also have to change their plans because of the sanctions. “Many people had postponed their trip, sometimes for one or two years because of corona, or canceled or rebooked. Now it is no longer possible at all, because a negative travel advice applies to Russia and the Russian consulate no longer issues visas,” says director Tom. Joosten van Russia specialist Eurocult-Lito.
He has already seen a marked decline in bookings since the downing of flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014. Before that, Russia had been a popular destination, since the country opened up after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
When travel to Russia becomes possible again, when the travel restrictions are lifted due to the sanctions, the question is what the sentiment will be. “We notice from the behavior of travelers that things other than culture also play a role,” says Oostdam of the ANVR. “The average consumer will not soon embrace Russia,” thinks Oad boss Koster.
Love to travel
A big difference with the Gulf War in the early 1990s is that people do want to go on holiday, says Koster. Then tourism collapsed, but he doesn’t see that happening now. “The Dutch consumer wants to go on holiday, especially after two years of corona, so they book to other countries.”
People love to travel, says Oostdam, so we do hope that they will book when the war ends. They then do not go to those regions, but shift to other destinations, such as the Mediterranean.
According to TUI, the fact that growth is leveling off may also have other causes than the situation in Ukraine. “Due to the sharp rise in fuel prices, the travel costs are somewhat higher and there is uncertainty about the energy bill for households. It is too early to be able to make more concrete statements about this.”
“Holiday is emotion and it is now suffering greatly,” says Oostdam. “We benefit from peace and security and trust. We will see that the number of last minutes will increase, because people will wait a little longer.”
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