Hockey in numbers: Who should České Budějovice bet on?

Dominik Hrachovina and Jan Strmeň | Photo: hcmotor.cz

Just before the end of the regular season, České Budějovice are in places where few expected them before the start of this season. Certainly not after winning bronze medals in the last one. Nevertheless, Motor has to fight until the last rounds with the threat of a tie, and the goalkeeper can play a key role in this. Who should they bet on in the last matches in České Budějovice?

Dominik Hrachovina

goalkeeper, 28 years old

” href=”https://www.hokej.cz/hrac/dominik-hrachovina/13641″>Dominik Hrachovina came to České Budějovice before last season as a clear number one and an expected support. Last year, he caught 44 games in the regular season, in so far this year, he has played in 31 duels, and his performances are not very convincing.

Jan Strmeň

goalkeeper, 31 years old

” href=”https://www.hokej.cz/hrac/jan-strmen/11556″>Jan Strmeň, on the other hand, is honestly waiting for his chances, as he got into action in 20 matches this year, and in the last one he even started only in 15 games of the regular season. However, it was Strmeň who caught the last two games of the ongoing season for Motor. And in them he showed again, for the umpteenth time, that he deserves much more space.

Just a glance at the basic statistics indicates that Jan Strmeň surpasses his better-known colleague. With a success rate of 92.1%, he is in the top ten in the extra league. On the contrary, Hrachovina can be found at the opposite pole with a success rate of 89.6%, only two goalkeepers who are consistently catching are worse this season.

However, the success of the saves indicates only a part of the goalkeeper’s performance, moreover, the team can significantly influence it with its play in front of the goalkeeper. However, when comparing two goalkeepers of the same team, she can also indicate something. And what the success of the interventions tells us is also confirmed by more advanced statistics.

Both goalkeepers face a very similar quality of shots: the expected success rate (xSv%) of Jan Strmena is 89.9%, and for Dominik Hrachovin it is exactly 90%. If we compare these values with the actual success of both goalkeepers’ saves, Strmeň is significantly better.

With a difference of +2.1%, Strmeň is the second best goalkeeper in the extra league, while Hrachovina is among the worst with minus four tenths. The number of goals caught above expectations (GSAx) also corresponds with this.

Strmeň was already among the best extra-league goalkeepers in this regard last season, and this season he continues to do so. In total, he caught almost 12 goals more than expected, and in terms of time, it is 0.65 goals per 60 minutes. This again places him in second place in the extra league.

Peas, on the other hand, fall short of expectations, both last year and this season. In the current season, Hrachovina has conceded a total of 3.8 goals more than expected, which means that, in terms of time, they have scored 0.42 goals every 60 minutes, just beyond expectations. There are only six goalkeepers in the extra league who are worse in this regard this season.

In addition, Strmeň also offers České Budějovice more consistent performances, as he performed reliably in 90% of matches this season, making him one of the ten most reliable goalkeepers. On the other hand, Hrachovina gave a reliable performance in roughly three quarters of the game, and only five goalkeepers are worse in the extra league comparison.

His occasional outages then led to the fact that Hrachovin’s performance cost Motor four games in which he performed poorly. This means that his value of goals caught above expectations was lower than the score difference of that match.

Like Strmeň, Hrachovina scored three well-taken matches, when his value of goals caught above expectations was, on the contrary, higher than the score difference. Considering the number of intercepted matches, however, even this statistic works out better for Strmeně, as the proportion of intercepted matches is 15% for him, while for Hrachovina it is only less than ten.

More or less all goalkeeping statistics indicate that Jan Strmeň is a better choice since the arrival of Dominik Hrachovina in České Budějovice, as he performs better and more consistently than his more famous colleague.

And in the last rounds of this season, when České Budějovice need every point, it can be an important decision that can save Motor from the playoffs, or even move it to the preliminary round of the playoffs.