It was a historic phone call. With Petr Pavel, an elected European head of state has accepted the congratulations of Taiwan’s president for the first time – a country that is not officially recognized by the Czech Republic.
And Pavel, who had clearly defeated billionaire Andrej Babiš on Saturday, went one better: he tweeted after President Tsai Ing-wen called on Monday that he hoped to “meet her personally in the future”.
He is thus setting a clear tone for his presidency before it begins in March. On the one hand, there is the dissociation from his predecessor Miloš Zeman, who stood for a pro-China course and repeatedly showed sympathy for Russia’s President Putin.
On Twitter, Pavel, who was chairman of NATO’s military committee until 2018, made it a point to highlight two phone calls: with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – and with Tsai.
“By seeking early exchanges with Ukraine and Taiwan, Pavel wants to show that the growing authoritarian threat from Russia and China will play a prominent role in Czech foreign policy,” says Marcin Jerzewski, who heads the Taiwan office of the Czech think tank European Values Center for Security Policy heads.
Prague’s center-right coalition distances itself from China
If Pavel and Tsai actually met while both are in office, it would be a quantum leap in European Taiwan policy. Because China sees the island state as its territory, even ministerial visits are often controversial. However, Pavel’s wording deliberately leaves open whether he means a visit before or after the end of Tsai’s presidency, says Jerzewski. After two terms in Taiwan, the liberal head of state will have to step down in 2024.
Prague’s centre-right coalition has recently distanced itself noticeably from China. The Czech Senate President visited Taiwan in 2020, and the Taiwanese Foreign Minister was received in Prague the following year. At the end of March, the chairwoman of the lower chamber of parliament, Markéta Pekarová Adamová, is to lead an 80-strong delegation from business and politics to Taipei.
The new ambassador Beijing sent to Prague has no expertise whatsoever on Eastern and Central Europe.
Marcin Jerzewskihead of the Taiwan office of the Czech think tank European Values Center for Security Policy
What does this mean for the EU? The president has a representative role in the Czech political system, but the signs point to more active involvement, explains analyst Jerzewski. “Politically, Pavel is in line with Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský. He will try to achieve more influence in the EU for Eastern and Central European member states.”
The Czech Republic follows the course of the Baltic States
In the EU, it was primarily Lithuania that turned its back on Beijing. In 2021, Vilnius allowed Taiwan to open a representative office under the country’s name – China responded with sanctions. The three Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia then left the Eastern Europe-China format 17+1.
Jerzewski believes that the Czech Republic will now follow suit. “In many respects, China has already given up on the Czech Republic. The new ambassador that Beijing sent to Prague, for example, has no expertise whatsoever on Eastern and Central Europe. In political Prague, this is read as a sign that China is no longer trying to exert influence.”
In 2016, Donald Trump was the only designated head of a state that has no official relations with Taiwan to telephone the president. Since Joe Biden took office, Washington has continued to strengthen ties — and indicated that it would defend the Republic if China invaded.
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