There were 3,246 infections on Tuesday, with a thousand fewer expected. What caused it? How risky is this development?
The current scenarios were created in mid-August according to the dynamics that were then. Until last week, we developed relatively strictly according to a realistic scenario, which, unfortunately, assumed an increase in the burden on the population. The two thousand is a prediction that meant an average of 2,000 a day, including weekends. This would mean that in those peak values the numbers would exceed three thousand, with weekly seizures exceeding 100 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants.
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According to a realistic scenario, this was supposed to happen around next week, but it has already happened. The epidemic is accelerating. With a reproductive number that is not good at all now (over 1.5), and with a highly contagious form of the virus, it will accelerate further. Neither the data nor the models allow me to say anything other than that we must prepare for further growth not only in the number of new cases, but also in the number of hospitalizations in the coming weeks.
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Is there a risk of restrictions on hospital care?
I can’t rule it out. In some regions, where the burden is greatest – Moravskoslezský, Jihomoravský, Olomoucký, Praha, Jihočeský – the viral load in the population is so large that there is virtually free community spread of a highly contagious form of the virus. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the number of hospitalizations will increase very strongly.
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However, the situation cannot be copied with the situation from the beginning of the year. The virus has a major impact on health vaccination. If we were not vaccinated at least as we are, there are six to ten times more people in hospitals with severe conditions at this time. We see that the course of infections that occur in senior patients after vaccination is not dramatically more difficult. Vaccination prevents this, but unfortunately there are still a large number of people not vaccinated.
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Back on Friday, you said we were sticking to a realistic scenario. Did you expect that we could switch to the risky one so quickly?
We anticipated that a risk scenario could occur, so it is included in all predictions. The models only expected that on average over 2,000 new cases per day in this volume of tests would be available in a week from now, ie at the end of October. So it’s a week faster.
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Can the jump in diseases be related to the parliamentary elections ten days ago, which is usually the time when the event can manifest itself in numbers?
The regional hygienic stations, which trace all polluted places, are able to answer this question. I would really be reluctant to say any hypotheses now. These are site-specific things. On the other hand, the jump is far from being in all regions.
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What proportion of diseases make up the elderly? Has the number of infections increased significantly even in risk groups?
Infected seniors are increasing, but not as sharply as the disease in the entire population. At the moment, in the age category over 65, we have some 43 seizures per 100 thousand inhabitants per week. The average population is over 100 per 100 thousand inhabitants per week.
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The IHIS data show that the lower vaccination coverage is more in border areas. How do you explain this and how to motivate the locals to get vaccinated?
Unfortunately, I cannot be optimistic here, because I know that in many of those areas, the first is done for vaccination. Mobile teams go there to bring the vaccine home. This leads to the argument of worse availability. I’m sorry. It’s probably a phenomenon that someone should watch, because it’s not just a matter of one region.
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So do you think there is more that can be done?
We will not discover America, the way may be to involve general practitioners as much as possible, because they live with those people, they have personal ties with them. Mayors in smaller municipalities also have a similar and significant influence. Thanks to their relationships with the locals, they can do an awful lot for that.
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