A big surprise at the start, some Ukrainian dissatisfaction and, above all, a lot of unity. NU.nl looks back on the annual NATO summit in Vilnius with two experts. These were their highlights.
1. The Sweden Twist
One of the most important developments actually came the evening before the summit, says Adája Stoetman, European security and defense researcher at the Clingendael Institute.
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that Turkey is ending its opposition to Sweden’s accession. Few commentators hoped for that because of the tough stance of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the run-up to the summit.
“That really led to jubilation in Vilnius,” says Stoetman. “I had dinner at Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s hotel. He was greeted with loud applause and cheers.” The Turkish twist elicited the observation from Stoltenberg: “The summit is already historic before it even started.”
A side note is that the Turkish parliament still has to agree. Stoetman: “It cannot be ruled out that there will still be bumps on the road. With Erdogan you never know.”
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2. Ukraine: not if but when to join NATO
“A few weeks ago, even a few days, whether Ukraine would join NATO was still an open question,” said Kathleen McInnis, a NATO expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a prominent Washington think tank. . “Now it is no longer a question of if, but when that will happen. That political hurdle has been taken.”
Member States have also shown that they will continue to assist Ukraine if the war becomes a long-term issue. Stoetman: “The NATO countries all want long-term support, military, economic and humanitarian.” That message will also have reached Moscow, where it is hoped that Western support will dwindle in the long run.
Among other things, NATO promised multi-year structural military support. Down the line, the G7 countries (US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan) made similar promises. France and Germany announced new shipments of weapons, which will include long-range missiles and armored vehicles.
‘Vicious’ phrase in joint statement
Yet in Vilnius it was not all harmony. Ukraine hoped there was more to come, such as an official invitation to join.
“I think there was expectation inflation,” says McInnis. “Ukraine is in the middle of an intense ground war. You can understand how urgent that is and expectations can get a bit high.”
The main sentence of the joint statement by NATO member states on Tuesday in Vilnius reads: “We will be in a position to invite Ukraine to enter the alliance if the allies agree and the conditions are met.”
“Vicious”, Stoetman calls it. You get nothing concrete out of it. “It seems that the allies disagree on the terms and when of Ukrainian membership.”
The Baltic States and Poland did push for an invitation, but that sentiment was not widely shared. “A number of major NATO countries were very clear about this before the summit started: Ukraine cannot join as long as there is an active war,” says Stoetman. No one knows how long that will take, so that stands in the way of drawing up a clear timetable.
Annoyance over and over again
President Volodymyr Zelensky was not happy about it. Even before the statement was issued, he wrote on Twitter that he thought it was “absurd” that his country was not given a clear timeline.
Zelensky’s anger sparked noticeable annoyance among some of his allies. US officials said the US deserves some gratitude for the tens of billions of dollars in aid. British defense minister Ben Wallace told how he immediately received a shopping list with weapons after an eleven-hour car journey to Kyiv. “We’re not Amazon.”
Zelensky turned around. He said he was still satisfied with the results of the summit. A “very necessary and significant success,” he said. Although a concrete NATO invitation to his country would have been “optimal”.
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3. Most comprehensive military plans since the Cold War
The member states also approved extensive military plans in Vilnius, which NATO soldiers have been working on for years. “That process was already underway when Ukraine was invaded, but the war obviously played a major role,” says Stoetman.
“This is very important. They’ve given everything a fresh coat of paint,” says McInnis. “And when you change military plans, it has a big impact on how member states’ forces are organized and how they operate. It’s a big change from what NATO has been doing for the last 30 years.”
According to insiders, the secret plans run to more than 4,000 pages, with detailed instructions on where each military unit should go and what tasks should be performed there.
There are plans for three regions within Europe: the North Atlantic and the Baltic, Central Europe (from the Baltic States to the Alps) and the Mediterranean. They each have their own security challenges.
Russia and terrorism are the biggest threats
“The plans fit very well with the 360-degree approach,” explains Stoetman. “You look around in a circle to pinpoint the main security threats.” For NATO, that is Russia and terrorism. “In Eastern Europe, Russia is the biggest threat, but in Southern Europe there are more concerns about terrorism and migration, for example.”
The biggest concrete change, according to the Clingendael expert, is that many more troops will become available for NATO. “That goes from 40,000 to 300,000 soldiers who can be ready within 30 days.” In addition, another 500,000 military personnel must be able to be deployed within 180 days.
To participate is to pay
The member states have also made the so-called 2 percent standard somewhat more binding. This means that each member state must spend at least 2 percent of its gross national product on defence. Previously it was a kind of target percentage, now everyone agrees that 2 percent will be the minimum.
“It’s hard to emphasize how important that is to politicians and policymakers in the US,” says McInnis. Americans have been annoyed for years that their European allies let the US take the lead. “Republican Senator Thom Tillis, for example, said in Vilnius that he has great confidence in NATO, except on this point.”
NATO is united and fully relevant again
It was already clear in advance of the summit in Vilnius that one objective prevailed over all others: to radiate unity. The Turkish spin on Sweden was an early success and the Ukrainian discontent a challenge. Stoetman takes stock. “NATO wanted to make it clear that all member states support the agreements made,” she says. “That message definitely got across.”
“It is clear how important the alliance is and will continue to be for the foreseeable future,” said McInnis. “NATO is one of the most important bulwarks against authoritarian regimes we have. There’s a reason Sweden and Finland decided to join after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is so eager to join NATO itself. It’s a vibrant alliance .”
2023-07-15 03:00:00
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