High political bellicosity threatens US election

New York and Washington. Political violence in the United States, which has reached levels not seen in 50 years, threatens to bloody the national elections that will be held in two weeks, and a violent post-election period cannot be ruled out.

Incidents of political violence since the storming of the Capitol by Donald Trump fans on January 6, 2021, whose purpose was to overturn the election, represent the largest and most constant increase since the 1970s, according to calculations by Reuters. The incident review detected at least 300 cases of political violence since the beginning of 2021, including more than 50 this year alone. Most of the cases monitored by Reuters come from the right, experts say.

In recent months, two attacks against Trump have been recorded – although it is worth noting that in both cases, those responsible were individuals apparently encouraged by right-wing currents – as local incidents, including the use of firearms in Arizona, among other places.

Some Republican and Democratic lawmakers are concerned that political violence with mass casualties could disrupt government continuity.during this election cycle, write former White House officials Steve Simon and Jonathan Stevenson in the latest issue of the New York Review of Books. For its part, the Department of Homeland Security, in its annual assessment of threats to national security, warns of violent extremist responses during this election cycle.

Other experts repeat warnings that this electoral situation could be chaotic and violent, underscoring the aggressive rhetoric of Trump and his allies, who declare that this election is for save a America of the dangerous radical leftists –The Republican candidate and former president himself has suggested that the military should be deployed to confront that threat–, as well as against immigrants who are invading to the country.

Time and time again he has used violent language to attack his political detractors, including the media, such as enemies of the United States and the judges and prosecutors leading several criminal cases against him.

Never before in the history of the United States has the peaceful transfer of the Executive Branch after an election been interrupted until January 2021, with Trump inciting his fans to storm the Capitol to stop the certification of the national election. The violence, including death threats to the then Speaker of the House of Congress, Nancy Pelosi, and Trump’s own Vice President, Mike Pence, forced the emergency evacuation of them and every legislator from the Capitol. Trump recently indicated that it was a day of loveand repeated that he will possibly pardon the hundreds of participants who have been prosecuted and imprisoned. Furthermore, Trump, once again (he refuses to accept the result of the last election), has refused to commit to respecting the results of these elections.

Therefore, experts warn that the post-election period, especially if the margin of difference between the two candidates is as narrow as the polls so far suggest, could be very volatile, including violent expressions.

For months, right-wing sectors have fueled the atmosphere of political violence by declaring that if Trump does not win, a war will be unleashed. civil war in the United States, and some right-wing sects and groups have been preparing for it.

And they have support among broad segments of the Republican universe. A recent PRRI poll finds that nearly a third of Republicans believe that patriots they might have to resort to violence to save the countryand one in five think that if Trump loses the election, he should declare it invalid and make whatever is required to assume the presidency.

Although experts debate whether acts of political violence have increased, they do not include among their calculations threats, even death threats, against public officials, electoral officials, judges and journalists; something that has been triggered especially against those who are perceived as opponents of Trump and his movement. Experts indicate that these threats could quickly become actions, since this is a country where on any given day, there are thousands of people walking the streets who are openly armed and support committing political violencecommented Galen Wintemute, director of the Violence Prevention Program at the University of California at Davis, in a recent interview with the New York Times.

There are enough weapons

It is worth remembering that in the United States it is said that there are enough firearms to arm the entire population of this country; between 300 and 400 million, although there are no precise official figures. (https://www.thetrace.org/2023/03/guns-america-data-atf-total/).

Political violence is not only limited to the electoral scenario. From his first presidential campaign in 2016 to date, civil rights and civil liberties advocates have warned that the rhetoric of Trump and his allies, including several governors and legislators, has justified and nurtured right-wing groups and movements and unleashed hate actions by various parts of the country against minorities.

The central anti-immigrant message of Trump’s campaign has fueled attacks against immigrants by promoting his message that they are invaders who come to murder, rape and rob Americans – even eat pets – and that they are poisoning the blood of this country.

At the same time, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the number of domestic terrorism attacks and plots against government agencies, officials, elected politicians, candidates and party representatives over the past five years is almost triple the number of such incidents recorded in the last 25 years combined.

But as always, the United States repeats that there is an external enemy. Yesterday, officials from intelligence agencies in the Biden government warned that Russia and Iran could try to stoke violence during the US election period to weaken democracy and undermine confidence in the results at the polls, reported the Wall Street Journal. Some external actors have the capacity to fuel protests and undertake violent actions during this period.said an intelligence official when presenting this evaluation to journalists.