The impact of Hezbollah’s murderous blows, especially of Hassan Nasrallah, may take months to be felt in its structure. However, targeting the leaders of the Lebanese organization has failed to give Israel a significant strategic advantage in the past, let alone deliver a fatal blow. But now, conditions and facts have changed, with the result that the future of the organization remains uncertain.
Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah, which have grown in scale over the past two weeks, are not the first that could lead to its destruction. In 1992, the Israeli media “they were celebrating” again an assassination of an important leader of the Lebanese organization. That man was Abbas al-Mousavi, secretary general of the Shiite group. He died when his motorcade was hit by Israeli helicopters.
Once again, and at that time, Israeli analysts assumed that the end of Abbas al-Mousavi would also signal the end of Hezbollah. The organization at that time had only a ten-year course, which had started with Israel’s invasion of Lebanon.
The rise of Hassan Nasrallah and the question marks
The aspirations of the Israeli state were not realized. Abbas al-Mousavi had already prepared the ground for his eventual end. His place was taken by the then 31-year-old, his protégé, Hassan Nasrallah. The then young leader not only managed to meet the demands of the position, but also made Hezbollah an important ally and a recognized force for the Arab world.
Hassan Nasrallah remained in office for three decades, until his own assassination last Friday, September 27. His death, which followed an Israeli attack on one of the Lebanese group’s covert headquarters in southern Beirut, has drawn attention to a two-fold question: Is Israel’s long-term policy of murderous attacks effective, and what does it mean? the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader and other senior figures for the organization;
Are Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah effective?
The question of the effectiveness of Israel’s murderous attacks on Hezbollah is debatable. Even within the Israeli political and security establishment, those discussing the matter have their doubts. While as reported by “Guardian” information, there is a section of current government ministers who opposed the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.
It is worth noting that in the past Israeli attacks have also targeted Hamas leaders, but they have failed to gain any long-term military advantage in the Gaza Strip. On the one hand, of course, there is a difference in the structure of the two organizations. On the other hand, the reality is that it will be months before the effects of the series of assassinations of Hezbollah leaders are felt inside the Lebanese organization. But even if it finally manages to have some impact.
This will not happen, however, only because Hassan Nasrallah managed to integrate the Shiite group into Lebanese society as a social body and as an armed force.
Expert analysts are almost certain that Hezbollah has suffered significant damage from recent events. However, many are unsure whether this situation may be a fatal blow, or whether the advantage for Israel may prove to be overstated, both on the ground and in terms of diplomatic relations.
How might Hezbollah react?
Hezbollah is almost certain that it will be difficult to stop responding to the blows it receives from Israel. For its part, the Lebanese group may have significantly reduced its missile attacks, but it “can’t help but respond,” as Saman Vakil, head of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program, tells X.
She emphasized that “Hezbollah is militarily and operationally inferior and knows that any escalation will lead to a conflict it cannot win. But if it does not respond, its morale and legitimacy will be further weakened». At the same time, he added that it should be taken into account that both Hezbollah and Hamas may have “fall“, it certainly isn’t “out of battle». «Continued fighting will undoubtedly mobilize, if not radicalize, another generation of fighters“, he concluded.
‘Israel’s killing of Hassan Nasrallah will have consequences for Israel, Hezbollah, the axis of resistance and Iran.’@SanamVakil‘s analysis on one of the most significant assassinations by Israel since 7 October 2023. A thread 1/10
— Chatham House MENA (@CH_MENAP) September 28, 2024
Of course, it is still unclear whether the successors to Hassan Nasrallah and the rest of Hezbollah’s leadership will be worthy replacements to share the same approach to trying to manage the conflict on the brink of an all-out war.
At the same time, what others emphasize is warning against underestimating the Lebanese organization in terms of its strength after the assassination of its leader. An important factor is the lack of information regarding the internal processes of Hezbollah, but also the intentions of its ally, Iran.
The Hezbollah and Israel errors
It is clear that both sides are between right and wrong decisions about their future. On the one hand, Hezbollah, and Hassan Nasrallah, underestimated Israel. On the other hand, it is uncertain whether the assassination of the leader of the Lebanese organization was a correct choice.
At the same time, there are analysts who strongly argue that the Shiite group is more resilient than the latest casualties suggest.
«Hezbollah is a robust institution with a strong chain of command that should ensure continuity at the leadership level,” Nicholas Blanford, a longtime observer of the group, wrote in an opinion piece for the Atlantic Council think tank.
«An unknown factor, however, is who among Hezbollah’s upper echelons died with Nasrallah. If other important leaders were also killed, that could complicate—and perhaps delay for a while—the process of restoring command and control over the entire organization, potentially leaving the party vulnerable to Israel’s next moves.
Another pressing question is whether Nasrallah’s death will force Iran and Hezbollah to begin using more advanced precision missile systems that could potentially inflict far greater damage and casualties on Israel than older, unguided missiles. used by the team until now.
Or will cold reason continue to prevail, with Tehran ensuring that a vengeful and angry Hezbollah does not fall into the trap of a full-scale response against Israel? Such a response could lead to a major war, which could erode Hezbollah’s capabilities and thus reduce its deterrent effect on Iran. The next few days will show it“, he noted.
Hezbollah’s next day
Hezbollah may have suffered a very big blow both in terms of human resources and equipment, but it is not excluded that it has the means to respond to its opponent with an equally significant attack. It can rally under its new leader and wage an all-out and protracted war. What the expert analysts also point out is that all possibilities are “open».
However, if the last scenario is confirmed and the situation in the Middle East escalates with the Lebanese organization preparing an endless attack on Israel, then the chances of winning are few. This will result in the Shiite group “losing” its power as well, but will “force” Lebanon to “pay” a very heavy price for the fragile condition it is in.
At the same time, information from the news outlet “Politico” reports that immediately after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the US tried to “save” the truce negotiations, as the leader of Hezbollah may “he got out of the way and made them happy“, but they are concerned that much more violent attacks will follow.
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