Hezbollah Claims Victory After Ceasefire With Israel
November 29, 2024
Tensions escalate again in the Middle East as Israel claims to have targeted Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon, just two days after a ceasefire came into effect. The Israeli army released a video showing an explosion, justifying the airstrike as a response to "terrorist activity." This marks the third known Israeli air raid since the 60-day ceasefire began on Wednesday, November 27th. This incident further complicates the fragile peace already threatened by international tensions surrounding Hezbollah.
Despite the ceasefire agreement met with cautious optimism, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem, declared a “great victory” for the group against Israel. Qassem, in his first public address since the ceasefire agreement, emphasized their success in exceeding the 2006 war victory, a claim that throws cold water on hopes for lasting peace.
"We were unable to destroy Hezbollah despite their intense airstrikes and ground clashes,” Qassem stated, confirming the group’s resilience against Israeli military might.
The agreement, brokered by France and the United States, mandates Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River, edging them 30 kilometers from the Israeli border. In their place, the Lebanese army is tasked with bolstering its presence in southern Lebanon, taking control of areas previously held by both Hezbollah and the Israeli army.
Despite the reassurances from Hezbollah leadership about coordinating with the Lebanese army, concerns linger about the organization’s powerful military arsenal. While Qassem acknowledged the army’s role as a national institution, he suggested the group retains significant military capability.
The long-term implications of this ceasefire remain uncertain. Qassem stressed that the agreement is not a formal treaty but a fragile truce, leaving many questioning its long-term viability and dreading a possible return to violence.
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What this ceasefire agreement means for the future of the region, and how the rift between Israel and Hezbollah will be bridged, remain open questions with potentially far-reaching consequences for international stability.
2024-11-29 23:43:00
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## Fragile Truce? Experts Analyse Hezbollah’s “Victory” Declaration Amid Israeli Airstrikes
**Tensions in the middle East remain high despite a recently brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, leaving experts questioning the agreement’s long-term viability.** Just days after the ceasefire went into affect, Israel launched airstrikes targeting what it claimed were Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon. This latest escalation followed Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem, declaring a “great victory” for the group against israel, further complicating the fragile peace.
To unpack the complex implications of this ceasefire agreement and the future of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, we spoke with **Dr.Sarah Cohen**, a Middle East analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and **Professor Omar Khalil**, a scholar specializing in Lebanese politics at georgetown University.
### Declaring Victory: Analyzing Hezbollah’s Stance
**Dr. Cohen**, what are your thoughts on Hezbollah’s claim of victory despite the ceasefire?
**Dr. Cohen**: Hezbollah’s declaration is a intentional strategy aimed at bolstering its image and legitimacy within Lebanon and amongst its supporters. While they technically prevented a full-scale invasion by Israel, portraying this as a decisive victory is a narrative tool designed to solidify their standing amongst Lebanese Shia communities and counter narratives of Israeli dominance.
**Professor Khalil**, do you agree with Dr. Cohen’s analysis?
**Professor Khalil**: I believe Hezbollah’s declaration is more a psychological victory than a military one. While they undoubtedly inflicted casualties on Israel and displayed resilience, ultimately they’ve agreed to withdraw from a significant portion of southern Lebanon. This suggests a measured acceptance of limitations to their territorial ambitions, indicating a concession, not a complete victory.
### The Fragile Peace: Short-Term Relief or Long-Term Solution?
**Dr. Cohen**, the ceasefire agreement mandates Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River. How likely is it for this coordinated withdrawal to actually happen?
**Dr. Cohen**: While Hezbollah has publicly expressed its willingness to cooperate with the Lebanese army, history suggests a level of skepticism is warranted. Previous attempts at disarmament have been met with mixed results,and Hezbollah’s self-reliant military capabilities pose a significant challenge to the Lebanese army’s control.
**Professor Khalil**, what are the potential benefits and risks of this phased withdrawal strategy?
**Professor Khalil**: The potential benefit is a reduction in tension and violence along the border. However,the risk is that Hezbollah’s continued presence,albeit further north,could still fuel tensions and impede genuine reconciliation. The lack of a formal treaty further raises concerns about the long-term stability of this ceasefire.
### The Lebanese Army: Can it Bridge the Divide?
**Dr. Cohen**, can the Lebanese army realistically fill the vacuum left by Hezbollah’s withdrawal and maintain security along the border?
**Dr. cohen**: The Lebanese army faces an immense challenge.It’s under-equipped and politically fragile, often caught between Hezbollah’s influence and pressure from Israel. This delicate balance requires careful negotiation and robust international support to ensure the army can effectively fulfill its role as a neutral mediator.
**Professor Khalil**, what are the long-term implications of this conflict for the Lebanese nation and its political landscape?
**Professor Khalil**: This conflict has exacerbated existing tensions within Lebanon’s fragile political system. Hezbollah’s continued presence and rhetoric heighten sectarian divisions, undermining efforts to build a unified and stable nation. Without genuine reconciliation and a commitment to a shared future, the risk of future conflict remains high.
### Looking Forward: Can Lasting Peace Be Achieved?
**Both experts agree that the ceasefire represents a precarious step towards peace, but the future remains uncertain.**
“The current agreement is a welcome respite from violence, but it falls short of a genuine resolution,” Professor Khalil concludes. “Addressing the root causes of this conflict, including Hezbollah’s disarmament and a
viable political solution for Lebanon, is essential for lasting peace.”
**Dr. Cohen emphasizes the need for continued international support:** “Sustained diplomatic efforts,coupled with coordinated economic and security assistance,are crucial to helping Lebanon rebuild and steadily move towards a more stable future.”
**What are your thoughts? Share your perspectives on the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the prospects for lasting peace in the comments below.
For more in-depth analysis on the Middle East conflict, we recommend:**
* The Long shadow of Hezbollah
* Navigating the Israeli-Palestinian Peace process
* The Role of the International Community in Resolving Regional Conflicts
