This article was originally published in English
The World Health Organization estimates that any of 30 known pathogens could cause the next pandemic. Several of them are already present in the world.
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COVID-19 may have seemed like a unique pandemic, but the pathogen that could cause the next global health crisis is likely already in scientists’ sights.
The World Health Organization (WHO) monitors “priority pathogens” that have the potential to cause major outbreaks of disease in humans, cause severe illness, and for which medical interventions are limited to prevent widespread harm. The emergence of a pathogen with the right combination could cause an international health emergency or global pandemic.
According to the WHO, researchers should prioritize these pathogens when developing vaccines, treatments and diagnostics.
For this year’s report, more than 200 scientists from 54 countries analyzed data on 1,652 pathogens – viruses and bacteria – and identified 33 as posing a pandemic risk, up from 10 in the 2018 edition.
“The global health landscape is constantly evolving, with the potential emergence of new pathogens and changing threat levels posed by existing agents,” indicates the report.
Among this year’s new priority pathogens are the virus that causes smallpoxa strain of cholera And two rodent virus which have spread to humans.
While some of this year’s priority pathogens are concentrated in particular regions, others are already present worldwide.
Here are the seven pathogens that will be present in the six WHO regions in 2024.
Influenza A virus
This group of influenza viruses includes H1N1, which caused a swine flu pandemic in 2009, and H5, the bird flu that broke out among cows and dairy workers in the United States this year. Experts have warned that the “disease X” – a hypothetical term for a new disease that could cause a pandemic – is likely to emerge from an influenza virus.
Sarbecovirus (or SARS-related coronavirus)
This is the umbrella term for the viruses that caused the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, the MERS outbreak in the 2010s, and the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Going forward, WHO says coronavirus surveillance should consider potential animal hosts, which played a key role in the early spread of these outbreaks.
Monkeypox virus
The monkeypox virus caused a global health emergency in 2022, but it has been endemic for years in parts of central Africa. A more dangerous strain is now circulating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said this week that it was considering designating the monkeypox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).
Dengue virus
Dengue fever is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes that may be asymptomaticbut can also cause serious illness resulting in hospitalization or death. People in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific region are at higher risk because of their tropical climate, but dengue viruses are found worldwide.
Klebsiella pneumoniae
Klebsiella pneumoniae is a normal form of bacteria in the intestines, but if it spreads, it can make people sick. It is usually spread through person-to-person contact or through infected equipment in hospitals or other health care settings and can cause pneumonia, meningitis, bloodstream infections, and wound or surgical site infections. Health experts are concerned about Klebsiella because some bacteria are becoming “superbugs,” meaning they are resistant to antibiotics.
Salmonella enterica non-typhoidal serovars
Salmonella bacteria can be spread through unsanitary food or person-to-person contact, causing diarrheal illnesses that can be particularly serious in young children. Many serotypes are quite common, but some cause invasive and potentially fatal disease. Several vaccine candidates are in early clinical trials to treat these bacteria.
Lentivirus humimdef1
Although the virus is classified as having a medium risk of causing a global emergency, it can jump from one species to another and has “delayed but devastating symptoms,” according to the WHO. There is no vaccine yet, although antiviral treatments are effective. The problem is particularly acute in the African region.
Additional sources • adaptation: Serge Duchêne
