NEW YORK (Nettavisen): Robert Farley, one of the editors of the American site 19 Forty-fivegave an overview and analysis of what are the most heated conflicts in the world right now – and which could lead the world into another great war.
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Although Fearley in his analysis, reproduced in Insidershighlights these five areas of conflict, it is specified, however, that we are unlikely to experience a third world war this year.
Here are the five conflicts threatening the world in 2023:
Ukraine:
19FortyFive writes that 2022 has come closer to a new world war than ever since the Cold War, after Russia last February attacked Ukraine.
It specified that the danger of Russia using nuclear weapons in the ongoing war has decreased and that the war is now at a “destructive stalemate”.
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This indicates that there is still a great deal of fear of an escalation and that Russia’s inability to move forward could threaten the stability of the Putin regime.
– Concerns about Ukraine’s ability to continue the war in the long term could force Kiev to take risky measures on its own to break the deadlock, writes the editor in 19FortyFive.
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The editor also believes it is unlikely, but still possible, that NATO will become a part of the war.
Putin’s use of nuclear weapons is also considered “unthinkable, but not impossible”.
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It is also pointed out that President Joe Biden does not hold all the cards in this conflict and that both Ukraine and Russia may be willing to accept the risk of an expansion of the conflict, which in turn could lead to a third world War.
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Taiwan:
The current dire situation of the Chinese crown has made the danger of immediate war between Depth and Taiwan, has been declining recently, writes 19FortyFive. But it should be noted that the level of tension is still very high.
– The Biden administration’s willingness to take a risky rhetorical stance regarding Taiwan’s defense indicates that Washington has real concerns about the prospect of a Chinese attack.
This rhetoric and what is said are “reckless stunts”, as then Spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in 2022contributes to increasing the risk of an escalation of the situation.
– Fortunately, there is good reason to believe that we will receive some form of war warning; as happened along the Ukrainian border, and a Chinese preparation for the conflict will obviously become visible to all concerned, writes 19FortyFive.
If, however, a conflict were to arise, it is very likely that both the United States and Japan will be involved.
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Facts about Taiwan and China
* China and Taiwan have been separated since 1949, when the Communists won the Chinese Civil War and took over the mainland. The defeated nationalists sought refuge on the island of Taiwan.
* In practice, Taiwan enjoys complete self-government. But China still insists that Taiwan be subject to Beijing and has threatened to invade the island if Taiwan formally declares independence.
* The strained relationship between China and Taiwan improved in the 2000s. Taiwan has huge investments in China, and China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner. In 2015, the presidents of the two countries met for the first time since 1949.
* When Taiwan’s new president, Tsai Ing-wen, refused to accept the Chinese doctrine that Taiwan is part of “one China” in 2016, Beijing cut off all formal contact.
* The United States is considered an informal ally of Taiwan, which has introduced a democratic form of government with elections and a multi-party system.
* In 1979, the United States recognized that Taiwan is part of “one China” and that the government in Beijing represents all of China. Norway and the vast majority of countries around the world do the same.
* President Joe Biden reiterated in spring 2022 that the United States will militarily defend Taiwan if the island is overrun.
* Taiwan has a population of about 23.5 million people, while China has about 1.4 billion people.
SOURCE: NTB extension
Greece-Turkey:
– Over the past year, tensions between Greece and Turkey have increased significantly, mainly driven by the confident turn of Turkey’s foreign policy and the internal vulnerability of the Erdogan regime, writes the editor.
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The conflict between Athens and Ankara regarding energy extraction in the Aegean Sea is also highlighted, although the territorial disagreement underlying the dispute has existed for decades.
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However, it is specified that two NATO allied countries are unlikely to attack each other, and that it will not only immediately drag NATO into the conflict, but also lead to some degree of opportunistic intervention by Russia.
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The Korean Peninsula:
19FortyFive points out that tensions between Seoul and Pyongyang have risen steadily in recent months, prompting provocations from the North Korea and aggressive rhetoric from South Korea.
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– The dynamic between the two states seems driven by impatience; an impatience in the North that the world still refuses to take them seriously despite their magnificent nuclear weapons, and an impatience in the South that a nation of great importance remains burdened with its inept and backward brother, writes Robert Farley.
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19FortyFive writes that tension between the countries is not new, but that they have historically been constrained by the Cold War and the liberal international order after the Cold War. With the former now gone and the latter in decline, this could lead to Kim Jong-un feeling he has an opportunity, while South Korea could lose patience with all the antics of its northern neighbour.
– If war breaks out, it could quickly become more destructive than the Russia-Ukraine war, with conventional and nuclear weapons that will demand terrible losses on both sides, writes 19FortyFive.
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China-India
The China-India conflict is last on the list, and it is pointed out here that conflict and fighting is occasionally seen between the two countries.
The last example was seen in mid-December when it was new border clashes between India and Chinawhere soldiers from both sides were lightly wounded in a clash at the disputed border in Arunachal Pradesh in far northeastern India.
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– While the real effort to control small chunks of territory in an almost uninhabitable mountainous terrain remains elusive, neither China nor India has pulled out of the conflict. While combat actions have thus far been somewhat limited, the desire to defend national prestige can quickly become toxic to even the wisest and most sensible leaders, writes 19FortyFive.
So far, neither Prime Minister Narendra Modi nor President Xi Jinping have found any solution to the conflict.
– At some point, both the Indians and the Chinese may be tempted to solve the problem through escalation, a step that may work as intended or could open the door to a much larger and more destructive conflict, writes the editor Robert Farley in 1945.
The greatest danger of nuclear war since 1945
Although the editor of 19FortyFive writes that it is very unlikely that any of these conflicts will escalate into a global conflict, many agree that we are now facing the greatest danger of nuclear war in a long time.
Swedish think tank Global Challenges Foundation believes the danger of nuclear war is greater now than it was in 1962, when the Soviet Union deployed missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons to Cuba.
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In its annual report on the risk of nuclear war released in December, the group warns that the danger of using nuclear weapons is greater than ever since the United States bombed the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
An all-out nuclear war will not only lead to huge numbers of casualties and unreal destruction. According to the report, the use of the weapons will also create dust clouds so powerful they block out sunlight. During the following nuclear winter, no crops can be grown.
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Survivors will be thrust into post-apocalyptic chaos, where violence and food shortages will destroy the vast majority of surviving people on Earth, the think tank writes.
– As Putin appears to be less influenced by his advisers, we believe the danger of nuclear war is greater now than it was during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, Kennette Benedict told AFP news agency.
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Tactical Nukes
Kennette Benedict is responsible for the annual reports of the Global Challenges Foundation. In this year’s report, you underline the danger of an escalation if Vladimir Putin were to fall into the temptation of using tactical nuclear weapons in order to achieve objectives in the war against Ukraine.
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The report points to deterrence as key to any nuclear war strategy. The certainty that your enemy can crush you if you start has, according to many, worked well since nuclear weapons have only been used once in warfare.
– It also shows that political restraint and moral judgments have played a role, the report said.
Rapid escalation
The vast majority of experts expect a rapid escalation if the US responds to a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine.
– Then we are in a completely different arena, says Kennette Benedict, who is also a consultant for Bulletin of Atomic Scientists who is behind the “Doomsday Clock”. It suggests how close we are to doomsday due to nuclear war, climate change or other threats.
