Two researchers estimate that extreme heatwaves cost the world economy at least $ 5 trillion between 1992 and 2013 and hit poorer countries four times harder than rich ones.
In terms of GDP (gross national product), the losses account for 6.7% of the GDP of countries representing 10% of the poorest and 1.5% of the richest. And the gap will continue to disadvantage poorer countries, because most of them are located in already warmer regions, where the human body’s tolerance thresholds are reached faster.
According to this new study, published on 28 October a Science advancesan increase in the average temperature during the five hottest days of the year is enough to have an impact on the rest of the year.
Many poorer countries are also producers of goods – agriculture or natural resources – which makes them more vulnerable to extreme heat. And this without taking into account the impact on their road infrastructure – the melting asphalt, for example – or on their electricity grids overloaded with the demand for air conditioning.
If their calculations are confirmed in the next few years by other studies, it will mean this economic impacts Climate change has so far been underestimated: since it is easy to calculate the losses resulting from floods or hurricanes, however, the economic impacts of heat have always remained difficult to measure. In fact, a $ 5 trillion loss over 20 years is their most “optimistic” estimate. The most pessimistic is $ 29 trillion. Furthermore, the fact that they have chosen the “five hottest days” of the year as their criterion means that the impacts of the shortest extreme heat escape calculations.
Finally, they note, the financial losses associated with these heat waves will continue to increase as average temperatures continue to rise.
