/ world today news/ Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s third term at the head of the party and state, which began last fall, looked like his triumph from the start. The opposition has been purged, the degree of control over the political elite is undeniable, big capital has also been brought under control, and Beijing’s influence on the foreign stage is greater than ever under the country’s communist rule.
Unlike in previous years, when among the leaders of the highest organs of the Party and the state there were many who went to Xi Jinping “by inheritance” as a result of complex inter-factional agreements, this time the team is made up of loyal collaborators. It seems that there will be no breakthroughs in the personnel issue, which Xi Jinping is paying special attention to.
But as the events of the past month have shown, something is not going according to plan.
We are talking about Foreign Minister Qing Gan’s disappearance from public view and the decision of the Standing Committee of the All-China People’s Congress (the Chinese Parliament) to dismiss him from office on July 25.
Wang Yi, who already held the post from 2013–2022, returned to the position of head of the Foreign Affairs Department after being promoted to the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee after the 20th Communist Party Congress in October 2022 of the Party.
Qin Gan remained in office for only six months. Only three months ago, he was elected a member of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, that is, he acquired a status between vice-premier and ordinary minister.
In China, ministers, with rare exceptions, hold their posts for five years or more, so Chin Gan’s hasty resignation would raise questions in itself. Given his mysterious disappearance, however, it took on a scandalous flavor and tarnished the image of the PRC as a country where everything is according to plan and under control.
Versions of what happened
In fact, what really happened to Qin Gan, no one knows.
The inner kitchen of the highest Chinese political elite has always been a “black box”, and now attempts to penetrate it are also fraught with serious problems in the Chinese state. Against this background, observers are forced to operate with assumptions and hearsay, which often takes many away from a real understanding of the situation.
The official version of the resignation of the employee is his state of health.
At the activities on June 25th, when Qin Gan was last seen, he really didn’t look good. In addition, as experts add, Qin gave the impression of an over-responsible person, one of those who literally “burns at work”, therefore, given the nervous geopolitical background in which he had to lead the foreign policy department, collapses are indeed possible.
Still, this version is hard to believe.
The mysterious disappearance of the head of the Foreign Ministry of the People’s Republic of China has a strong impact on the image of the People’s Republic of China. And no matter how bad the minister was, in a month the caring comrades-in-arms would find an opportunity to present him to the public. This did not happen, which forces us to take a closer look at the unofficial versions explaining the Qing Gan incident.
According to them, Qing Gan fell victim to a deadly combination of circumstances: on the one hand, “moral impurity” (namely an affair with the popular Hong Kong journalist Fu Xiaotian, who gave birth to a child out of wedlock late last year), on the other hand, the interest in the whole this story with western intelligence agencies.
The Hong Kong media, which has been buzzing around this whole story, presents as the most obvious evidence the fact that on March 19, 2023, Qing Gan’s birthday, Fu Xiaotian posted a photo of his newborn son on his Weibo social network with the caption: “Congratulations birthday dad’.
The evidence of the journalist’s connections with the special services is, of course, not in the public domain. But, again, a number of Hong Kong media, which do not shy away from their yellowness, write about this as a given.
The rest can be speculated, but it is clear that this whole story is incompatible with the work of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and not only the protection of national interests in conducting foreign policy contacts, but also the wisdom of Xi Jinping and his advisers, who appointed at the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a person with such “skeletons in the closet”.
However, this version does not answer all the questions that arise in connection with the disappearance of the minister. And here, of course, as always, there are various conspiracy theories.
Conspiracy theorists also provide no evidence for their conclusions, but it is obvious to them that the struggle over Qing Gan is a struggle over PRC foreign policy.
Qing Gan, a specialist in Anglo-Saxon countries by training and professional experience, served as China’s ambassador to the United States in 2021-2022 and is considered a leading expert on relations with Washington. Under Qing Gang, PRC foreign policy maintained the anti-American bias that had been set under Wang Yi.
According to conspiracy theorists, Qing Gan’s scandalous resignation is an attempt to reverse the anti-American vector of Beijing’s policy and generally weaken the PRC’s ability to influence international processes.
However, the weakness of such reasoning lies in the fact that Qing Gan, despite his high position as a minister, had very limited influence on foreign policy. In China, it is determined by the Party Committee on Foreign Affairs, whose chairman is Xi Jinping himself, and the head of the office (and the de facto curator of all foreign policy) is Wang Yi. The one who became the new – old minister.
And it is impossible to suspect Wang Yi of any sympathy for Washington.
What’s next
The key question is whether the 69-year-old Wang Yi’s return is temporary or whether he, like his boss, will remain in office for a full third term.
If the appointment is temporary, various options for further development of events are possible: incl. to the “restoration” of Qing Gan himself. However, if you try to predict the appointment of a new minister, you must understand that the choice will be made from a very limited number of officials.
Traditionally, it is believed that a position of such caliber can only be held by a member of the Central Committee of the party, and that with experience in the profile.
One of those who fully meet these requirements is 60-year-old Liu Haixing.
A brilliant European who worked in France, in July 2022 he was sent to another job and became the deputy chief of staff of the State Security Council of the CPC Central Committee, and in the autumn he was elected to the Central Committee. According to the Chinese “table of ranks”, this post corresponds to the level of “zhenbuji”, that is, minister. The State Security Council is an extremely influential structure that gradually chooses for itself certain areas of foreign policy.
The Qing Gan scandal and the subsequent appointment of a Councilman as head of the Foreign Ministry can be interpreted as a decisive victory for the “silovaks” of the security services.
Another Central Committee member with a diplomatic background is Liu Jianchao, 59, who studied and worked in the UK and later headed the Chinese embassies in the Philippines and Indonesia.
Rumors associate him with having special contacts with representatives of the Anglo-Saxon states. Now he heads the international relations department of the CPC Central Committee, that is, he is responsible for inter-party contacts. Formally, his appointment as a minister will be a demotion.
Finally, it is worth noting that the Secretary of the Party Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China is not a minister, but 62-year-old Qi Yu. But unlike the two Lius, he has no diplomatic experience and is pursuing a career in the Party bureaucracy. It is very difficult to imagine that the new minister, that is, a priori a person who should appear a lot in front of the international community, will be him, and not one of the classical diplomats.
At the same time, we must understand that in the current political system in China, the post of foreign minister does not mean control over the formulation and implementation of foreign policy. As mentioned above, this is the prerogative of the highest party structures, and in them Xi Jinping’s dominance is still not in doubt. The Qing Gang situation has hit the image of the political regime Xi has built, but is unlikely to lead to its reconfiguration.
Translation: ES
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