He thinks Putin is making “grave” mistakes.

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson is referred to by experts as a “huge defeat” for Moscow.

There are still few indications that the fighting in Ukraine will lessen in intensity in the coming months.

This means Institute for the Study of War (ISW), who believe that Russian attention will be directed to eastern Donetsk, where fighting will intensify.

– The Russians are unlikely to make significant operating gains, despite their renewed efforts, the think tank writes.

– Growing need to show strength

The low likelihood of Russian advances into eastern Ukraine is justified by the fact that the Ukrainians are also likely to redeploy forces eastward and that the newly mobilized Russian soldiers have proven to be undertrained, poorly equipped and very reluctant to fight.

Several Norwegian researchers believe that the Russians anticipate a defensive battle throughout the winter.

The think tank, on the other hand, believes the fighting will intensify as temperatures drop and muddy ground conditions freeze.

In this context, they believe that Vladimir Putin has everything to gain from a possible ceasefire or cessation of hostilities.

– He should recognize that he needs to give his forces time to recover and allow incoming reservists time to integrate into their units, train and prepare for combat. He may want to prevent the Ukrainians from taking advantage of the emotional uplift of their latest victories, writes ISW.

The fact that Putin continues to whip his generals to carry out offensives in these circumstances is indicated in the analysis as a “grave mistake” from a military point of view.

The think tank believes it is likely due to the same psychological factors that prompted Putin to order the invasion in the first place, combined with a growing need to show strength in the face of criticism of the ineffective war.

– Putin is unlikely to be willing to seek a ceasefire unless it is accompanied by huge Ukrainian or international concessions.

Growing criticism in Russia

In recent weeks and months, criticism of the ineffective war in Ukraine has largely been leveled by Russian financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.

He is a close ally of President Vladimir Putin and earlier this fall claimed to have founded the Wagner mercenary group, which he has previously denied.

ISW has previously described the oligarch as a threat to Kremlin rule, with the potential to undermine the president’s “strongman” appeal.

Jakub M. Godzimirski, who studies Russian foreign and security policy at Nupi, believes, on the other hand, that the threat it poses is negligible.

– It is rather the case that Putin controls him, rather than the other way around. Prigozhin plays a big role in many contexts and is still sitting on a number of assets, but that’s nothing compared to what Putin controls in terms of tools of power, Godzimirski previously told Dagbladet.

According to the researcher, Prigozhin may be trying to influence certain political decisions with certain comments, but he believes that we should also expect it to be all an arcade game.

– Statements by Prigozhin and other critical military bloggers sound like a challenge, but are actually used to advocate more brutal behavior in Ukraine.