Accuscore‘s prediction for the presidential election is extremely accurate.
The new president of the USA will be elected today, Tuesday. The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has been extremely even in the light of opinion polls. The candidates have been within the margin of error in almost all measurements, both in the swing states that ultimately decide the elections and in the national support.
The updated forecast prepared by Accuscore for Iltalehti tells the most likely result in the election based on the simulation model. The president is decided by the electors, of which the winner needs 270 votes.
Since the previous forecast, made in mid-October, Trump’s national support has edged closer to Harris’ readings. Now the opinion polls show a very even race, where both candidates are alternately one or two percent ahead of the other, depending on the pollster.
Republicans have received more votes nationally in presidential elections since the 1980s only once, when George W. Bush won his second term in 2004. Such a tight fight for greater national support means that Republicans have strengthened their hold in populous states like Texas and Florida, which are favorable to them. Or maybe Trump’s approval rating is higher across the country than many previous Republican candidates.
In our previous forecast, we went through the locations of the election settlement. The updated figures for the latitude states take into account the latest opinion poll data. The next seven elections will ultimately decide the state’s predictions.
Donald Trump’s national support has risen in the run-up to election day. ALL OVER PRESS
Nevada
In Nevada, a very tight race seems to be leaning towards Donald Trump based on opinion polls. Atlasintel’s Gallup, published over the weekend, showed Trump leading by up to six percentage points.
In our previous forecast, Nevada’s six electoral votes were going to Harris, but according to the updated forecast, it looks like Trump will take them. The difference in the number of votes will hardly be six percentage points, but even a difference of one percentage point is enough, because whoever gets the most votes takes all the voters.
Georgia
Of the last 15 major polls in Georgia, 13 have shown more support for Trump, and two are ties between the candidates. The difference between the candidates has changed from a tie at the beginning of September to a couple of percentage points in favor of Trump.
The measurements have traditionally been quite accurate in Georgia, so our simulations also show Trump winning by a few percentage points and a pot of 16 voters.
Michigan
In Michigan, there has been a surprising amount of dispersion in the opinion polls of the last few weeks. Others show a three percentage point win for Trump, and still others a five percentage point difference in favor of Harris. In any case, the race is tight, as in the other “northern wall” states.
As for Michigan, it is good to remember the big differences between opinion polls and election results in both 2016 and 2020. At that time, the average of the last opinion polls two days before the election showed both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden five percentage points ahead of Trump. In the end, Trump won over Clinton and lost to Biden by a good couple of percent.
Our forecast shows Trump ahead by just under a percentage point in Michigan, but the gap has shrunk even more in recent days. It will likely be one of the tightest votes to decide the fate of Michigan’s 15 electors.
Kamala Harris is breathing down Trump’s neck, for example in Michigan. AP
North Carolina
Trump has won North Carolina in the last two elections. The opinion polls still showed a very even race in September, but according to the polls, Trump seems to have increased his lead considerably during October.
A somewhat surprising exception to the measurements that otherwise show more support for Trump was a poll published by the New York Times over the weekend, in which Harris was measured four percentage points ahead of Trump.
According to our predictions, Trump will win North Carolina’s 16 electors for the third time in a row by a margin of a couple of percentage points.
Arizona
In Arizona, the difference between the candidates appears to be the largest of the seven scales. Trump’s support has increased by 2.5 percentage points from the level of the beginning of September, if the averages of opinion polls are to be trusted.
In our forecast, the difference is even bigger, as the last polls have measured differences of up to seven percentage points in favor of Trump. Along with Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, Arizona is the state where the error of opinion polls compared to the 2020 election result was less than two percentage points. We consider it likely that the opinion polls will be realized this time as well.
Wisconsin
Just a week ago, it looked like Wisconsin’s 10 electors would turn to Trump, as happened in 2016. However, in the latest opinion polls, Harris has gained a slight edge over Trump, so in our prediction, Harris will win by the same razor-thin margin that Biden took the state in 2020.
As in Michigan, it is also worth remembering in Wisconsin that opinion polls have greatly underestimated Trump’s support in the last election. If that happens again this time, Trump will also win Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s 19 electors are perhaps the most sought-after prize of the Libra states. Harris has practically led in the opinion polls from the beginning of August to the middle of October. Since then, Trump’s support has risen narrowly ahead of Harris.
The odds of winning in Pennsylvania are a coin toss for both candidates, but our prediction has Trump taking the state by less than a percentage point based on his upward trend.
The final result
When you count the electors of all states in the candidate pools, you get Harris 236 electors and Trump 302 electors. Although the difference in the number of electoral votes seems large, Harris will win by two electoral votes if he turns the tight battles of Pennsylvania and Michigan into a victory. Likewise, Trump can lose either North Carolina or Georgia in addition to Michigan and still win the election by four electoral votes.
In the last election, opinion polls did not manage to reach all Trump supporters. In the 2020 elections, the nationwide support of the presidential candidates was most accurately measured in its polls by the Brazilian company Atlasintel. The difference between their last poll and the final national vote was two percentage points.
Now they have taken measurements almost daily, and in all of them Donald Trump is getting more votes nationwide. As for the Libra states, their latest poll over the weekend had Trump leading Harris in all seven states. In some, the lead was close to the margin of error.
Harris’ chances for the presidency will improve significantly if young men without college degrees, who usually vote less, stay at home this time as well. Even now, it seems that women’s early voting activity is significantly higher than men’s. This trend mostly falls on Harris.
On Wednesday morning, we will know more precisely whether the angry young men who support Trump have set off on election day.
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