Brief information on the operational situation for the pandemic of April 4, 2022
As always, first the pandemic, then the war.
As I promised, for 14 days I did not make predictions so that many heroes writing against me could displace me with their predictions of the pandemic. What happened?
Vitanov’s law was confirmed:
The haters are just howling and roaring, they can’t give a decent forecast.
So, they left you in my hands again. Again. That is why we need to stimulate them in another way. Here’s how – I’m setting up two clubs.
1. Moriarty Club
Terms of membership:
a.) You are a professor of mathematics (there is no way Moriarty was)
b.) For 2 years you have worked with at least 2 governments composed of perfectly antagonistic political forces.
c.) You have been selected to work with the government not because you hold a position, but because you can make analyzes and forecasts.
d.) Your work has over 5,000 media coverage
Welcome to the club. Conditions for membership: all without point a.) We must give youth a chance. And also to the jurists and reviewers from Gank’s Cafe.
2. Harry Seldon Club
Terms of membership:
a.) You are a professor of mathematics (there is no way Harry Seldon was).
b.) Predict the trajectory of the national social system 5 months ahead with what will happen week by week.
c.) Exactly what you predict is happening.
d.) For two years, yurts have been croaking at you, roaring and howling haters, but they can’t replace you as a forecaster.
Welcome to the club. Conditions for membership: all without point a.)
When there are at least 2 members in each club, we will make a statute.
Here, come jurists and reviewers, come on, come to me in the clubs. As soon as someone manages to fulfill the conditions, I will listen to what he says. The conditions are not impossible – there is already one who has fulfilled them.
Now for the pandemic
1. The basic reproductive number – and today is 0.95. It is below 1, it even fell below 0.9, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink. The health system continues to unload. The Harry Serdon script is stable.
As you can see, the Harry Seldon script did its job.
However, there is no anti-epidemic situation, measures are recommended. And the scenario remains stable. You will not forget to ask me on April 20 what the secret I wrote about a week ago is.
2. No superfire. Well, there is nothing to do now. There is no.
“Harry Seldon” extinguishes the diffuse spread. There are two hundred cases yesterday. We haven’t had that little since. And even fewer will happen.
3. No overcrowded hospitals. There are no overcrowded hospitals.
There is no. Beds that are being transferred to other needs continue to be vacated. There is no chaos. There are mathematical criteria by which the beds are reduced and you can see that the reduction is going smoothly
4. No total lockdown. Is there – is not. “Harry Seldon” did great here as well. This was announced in November last year, right?
5. Mortality – is slowly declining. As predicted.
If it falls, it falls. You see, there are days when deaths are single digits. The number of such days will grow.
That’s what Harry Seldon said.
7. And so – the social system is still moving on the pre-determined trajectory of the “Harry Seldon” script you announced months ago. Things are under control. Is that correct? That’s right. If the measures fall within the set deadlines, they fall.
“Harry Seldon” did its job.
I write again – the tragedy of this country and this people is that they only talk and spit on others, especially if someone achieves something. And it starts – krya, krya – he was like that, like that, but we will write him a review that he couldn’t do that, he couldn’t do that. And when this someone who has achieved something asked the army of squatters and reviewers – what are you and what can you do and they get mad. Hey, that needs to change – in the place of squatters and reviewers should come people who can. Then and only then will this country and this country recover.
8. The map today. It is calm on the Greek border. The new version of Omicron is gone. We keep it that way, turn off the diffuse spread and then try to turn it on again. If we are thugs, he will not succeed. That’s how the Harry Seldon script was calculated. He did his job. But you can see that there is still red and purple on the risk map. Omicron is not gone yet. It is your job to protect yourself.
Now for the war.
Let’s recall what he has said so far
1. The war will not be short. I expect 45,000 Russian soldiers killed. What I have underestimated and what I have overestimated here, we will see.
2. I wrote to you that the Russian group of troops does not have the strength to effectively encircle Kyiv. That’s what I wrote you, isn’t it. Therefore, Russia’s goals were originally different
3. I wrote to you that the Russian group of troops is not numbered to keep the whole of Ukraine in an occupied state. That’s what I wrote you, isn’t it. Therefore, Russia’s goals were originally different.
4. I wrote to you that the actions around Kyiv and Nikolaev are to stifle the respective Ukrainian forces, and the main battles will be on the line Mariupol – Kramatorsk – Kharkov and possibly Odessa. That is, I expected the main theater of operations to be in southern and eastern Ukraine. You watch what happens and judge if I was right.
5. Mariupol fell, it was time for the battle of the Kramatorsk Arc. I wrote to you that a lot of blood will be shed here. Mathematics says the Ukrainian group will not stand. He is loudly shouting against this statement. Okay, scream, we’ll see. Or you can go straight once. Statistically, I have to confuse from time to time. But I will hardly be wrong here. The fate of eastern Ukraine is decided by the Kramatorsk Arc.
6. Technical refraction – that’s what we agreed to talk about in mid-April. You have not forgotten what I wrote to you about the predator with a tongue like a worm and the counterattack fish. To control territory, you must have an army of naya. With an army there, you can’t send it anywhere else. Where? – near Kramatorsk. And when you have no reserves, there comes a time when you break.
7. Mental refraction.
I did not believe that there could be such amateurs in this war. These days in Bucha the extras had not been told that the photos were going on, so the dead were moving their hands and getting up to walk, that the mud sucks. In principle, both sides are taking the right actions to maintain the psyche of the population and the army – there is censorship, opposition parties do not have them to spoil the mental state.
However, some elements of cracking are noticeable. Some Ukrainian generals have already been declared traitors, and Izyum has been betrayed. The Russians are betting on the thesis of denazification and demilitarization. Interestingly, this works in Russia itself and in the army group in Ukraine.
The people of Ukraine what to do – run away, who can. War is not a happy experience at all. I wonder what will happen in our country when the battle of Kramatorsk begins. Will we increase censorship? Or not. It depends on how it goes. The forecast is that we will have to increase censorship. But we must be careful not to have to explain ourselves like Goebbels for Stalingrad.
8. On the fronts. As you can see, the dialectic works.
They tell Vitanov that there will be nothing in Donbass, he is waiting for the battle at the Kramatorsk Arc. Fool, in a word, but we know that. The Ukrainian divisions are standing there. All right. They think they can dance (win). And there is nothing wrong with that. The Russians, too, think they can win. And as more than 120,000 people gather there, they will try. What does mathematics say about this? In simple words – Grandma Metza is hungry in early spring and will eat.
That’s right, in early spring the bears are hungry and start eating hard. And here so. But it was plucked. They bears spring time so. Over time, the hair shines. Which cannot be said of the other country, which is systematically sinking into ruins. This sucks, because after decades it will not be able to recover.
This is the situation. We are waiting to see what will happen.
And while we wait and watch, we remember Bismarck. Deto did not know how to return the bear to the lair and that the war was one of the three most lied events.
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I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you.
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