HCP: Development of two.9% in Q2, inflation falls additional

The Moroccan economic system recorded a progress of two.9% within the second quarter of 2024 in comparison with the identical interval of the earlier 12 months, in line with the Excessive Fee for Planning (HCP). This development follows a progress of two.5% noticed within the first quarter of the identical 12 months.

The HCP attributes this dynamic primarily to the efficiency of the secondary and tertiary sectors. In the beginning of the 12 months, manufacturing exercise had slowed, which had slowed total progress excluding agriculture. Nonetheless, the second quarter noticed a restoration in manufacturing in different secondary industries in addition to market companies, permitting progress excluding agriculture to return to ranges akin to these earlier than the Covid disaster (+3.7%).

Extractive industries and development on the rise

The worth added of extractive industries elevated by 15.6% year-on-year within the second quarter of 2024, pushed by a powerful improve in exports of non-metallic minerals and elevated demand from native processing industries. The development sector additionally confirmed its restoration, supported by the dynamics of public works, with a 3% improve within the second quarter after a rise of two.5% within the first quarter.

Manufacturing industries returned to a extra sustained progress charge within the second quarter, with a rise of three.5% in annual variation, towards 2.1% within the earlier quarter, partly because of a positive base impact.

Agricultural sector in decline

Inflation down

Inflation, as measured by the buyer worth index, fell by nearly half within the second quarter of 2024, to 0.7% from 1.2% within the first quarter, in line with the HCP. This decline was primarily on account of a 0.5% discount in meals costs, whereas non-food costs elevated by 1.5%, after a 0.9% improve within the earlier quarter.

Core inflation, excluding government-set costs and unstable gadgets, additionally declined from 2.5% to 2.2%, pushed by decrease costs for meals and manufactured items.

Contemporary meals costs had been the primary driver of the decline in headline inflation, contributing -0.8 share factors, on account of decrease costs for contemporary greens and citrus fruits. However, costs for some meals, equivalent to fruits, pink meat and spices, elevated because of the drought and better manufacturing prices.

For the third quarter of 2024, the HCP forecasts nearly steady inflation, with a rise of 0.8% for total inflation and a couple of.1% for core inflation, supported by a discount in inflationary pressures within the meals and non-energy items sectors.

LNT