/ world today news/ What dictated the decision taken by the supreme power of Russia in the face of columns of armored vehicles that inexorably moved in Moscow on Saturday, when a military rebellion of the Wagner group broke out the day before? What are the political implications and prospects?
We now know that since the most terrible Saturday morning, the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has intervened decisively in the situation (most likely at the personal request of Vladimir Putin).
As it turned out, he had known the rebel leader Yevgeny Prigozhin personally for more than two decades. Therefore, in a critical situation for Russia, he took on the mission of mediator and negotiator between the Kremlin and the Wagnerites.
As they say in Minsk, active military-political contacts by telephone continued throughout the day. Their result in the evening was the sudden halt of Wagner’s columns, which had hitherto been rolling almost unimpeded towards the capital of Russia.
The only obstacles that the local authorities tried to put in the way of the disobedient, battle-hardened fighters were the heavy trucks filled with sand that blocked the M-4 highway.
The “musicians”, who were constantly marching towards Moscow, acted simply with the barriers of trucks: they decisively rammed them with tanks and drove them down the slopes.
Lukashenko managed to come to an agreement with Prigozhin, who by the evening of June 24 erupted furiously. This happened only when the columns of “musicians”, in fact, without meeting resistance, had already reached the Moscow region. Leaving behind Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, Lipetsk and Tula.
At the same time, Minsk officially stated: “Evgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to stop the movement of armed individuals from the Wagner company in Russia and to take further steps to de-escalate tensions.”
“At the moment on the table is an absolutely profitable and acceptable option for resolving the situation with security guarantees for the fighters of PMC “Wagner”, the Belarusians also stated.
In response, Prigozhin’s press office released the following statement:
“They wanted to disband the orchestra, we went on June 23 to the Justice March. During the day we reached 200 kilometers from Moscow. During this time we have not shed a single drop of blood from our fighters.”
“Now is the moment when blood may be spilled. Realizing the full responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be spilled by one of the parties, we turn our columns and go in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan,” said more from ” Wagner”.
Soon, Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, explained that the Wagner Group was not retreating to its former field camps at all. No, it turns out that they will have to settle in new ones – under Batka’s wing. But. With the word that from now on, as it turns out, the life of the rebels pardoned by the Kremlin is guaranteed.
Yevgeny Prigozhin is also simplified (at least in words), according to Peskov. The barely initiated criminal case against him has already been closed.
Results? On the one hand, yes, mass bloodshed in Moscow was avoided with Lukashenko’s help. And perhaps, as Sergey Naryshkin spoke, a civil war that would leave no stone unturned on our side. But what comes next?
Will Prigozhin, who realized what abyss he is pushing us towards, stop? If so, what will he demand from the Kremlin in return?
The resignation of Shoigu and Gerasimov, who did not dare to have a direct dialogue with the rebels, who openly called on the generals for extrajudicial repression?
Further on. Let’s recall what Prigozhin himself said on Saturday morning in front of the television cameras, who pompously called his campaign against Moscow a “march of justice”.
In particular, Yevgeny Viktorovich immediately resolutely rejected all of Putin’s most terrible accusations against him:
“The president was deeply mistaken about the betrayal of the Motherland. We are patriots of our Motherland. We fought and we fight. All fighters of PMC “Wagner”. And no one will surrender at the request of the president, the FSB or anyone else. Because we don’t want the country to continue living in corruption, fraud and bureaucracy… And those who oppose us today are those who have gathered around the scum.”
But then, from Prigozhin’s point of view, the issue with them was not resolved at all during the Saturday events. And if so, isn’t it logical to wait for another “March of Justice” from “Wagner”?
In this case, it is very likely that the conflicting parties will continue to prepare for such a turn of events.
On the part of the Kremlin, I am sure, an attempt will be made to quickly and financially “strangle” the Wagner group that escaped across the state border.
It is clear that in the future the rebels in Belarus will not receive any supplies from Moscow. Weapons, ammunition, equipment, spare parts and other things that went to them through the Ministry of Defense – in the first place.
Lukashenko, even if he continues to find a common language with Prigozhin, does not help here. He is simply unable to personally maintain a second army, the size and combat potential of which is comparable to that of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus.
And then this private military organization of 25,000 people, which only yesterday was fighting so bravely at the front, will quickly collapse, to the joy of Kiev.
In any case, I am convinced that neither we nor the Ukrainians will see the Wagner group on the front line in its former form. Not until August 5, as Prigozhin publicly promised, but never. And this is a huge loss for the Russian group involved in the special operation.
However, these are consequences exclusively for the front. Even worse is another. On Saturday, society felt with horror the icy smell of 1917.
“Our country will never be the same again. The column of the Wagnerites did not move on the asphalt – it passed through the hearts of the people, dividing society in half…
Millions of people were horrified yesterday at the thought that all that they have experienced over the years will be erased in one day.”
I didn’t say that. This is Alexander Khodakovsky, former Minister of State Security of the DPR, as of March 30, 2023, Deputy Chief of the Main Directorate of Rosgvardia for this Russian region.
Translation: SM
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