Are we heading in France towards a second epidemic wave as strong as the first? While for several weeks the indicators have shown an increased circulation of the new coronavirus in France, the number of hospitalizations and admissions in intensive care remains stable.
In total, more than 4,500 new positive cases for the coronavirus were detected daily Thursday and Friday, figures unpublished since May, according to Public Health France. This indicator has been rising steadily for several weeks (+ 43% last week, + 39% the previous week), while the screening rate is “stable”, observes the health agency, which reports in its latest bulletin. a doubling of cases every 17 days.
Other markers of the “strong progression of the circulation of the virus”, the number of new foci of grouped cases (“clusters”) is “still increasing” and the reproduction rate (called “R”) is around 1, 3 since the end of July. The latter figure indicates the average number of people infected with each carrier of the virus. When it is above “1”, the epidemic develops.
For the microbiologist Patrick Berche, former director of the Institut Pasteur de Lille, interviewed by France 24, “there is a discrepancy between the number of cases detected and the number of people hospitalized, which remains stable”.
Hypotheses but no certainties
The specialist makes two hypotheses to explain this discrepancy: “Either the number of contaminated mainly concerns people between 20 and 60 years old and people at risk protect themselves more”, explains Patrick Berche. “Either the virus loses its virulence. A mutant [du Covid-19], D614G, is believed to circulate in Europe and the United States and is less virulent and more contagious. It is currently predominant over other strains of coronavirus. ”
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