British intelligence believes Russian forces are regrouping for a new offensive. But analysts believe it could take weeks or months before the Russians have enough fighting power for a new major offensive.
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Mariupol in the south is still under heavy attack, while Russian forces are slowly but surely penetrating further into the city.
But in large parts of the country, Russian forces still have little progress to show.
– They have stood still in almost all areas, so there is a bit of a wave back and forth, says lieutenant colonel and head teacher at the Norwegian Defense College Geir Hågen Karlsen, to VG.
– There are some reports that they (the Russians) have been repulsed outside Kyiv, and elsewhere the Russians have come a little further. But that has been the case for a while, and we probably think that it will last until the Russians eventually get so many forces forward that they can launch a major offensive, says Karlsen.
Then the question is when it can happen.
The think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the deadly civil war that has now arisen can last for months.
Their analysis is that the mobilization the Russians are now doing takes time, and that in the short term they do not have the ability to bring in much new, effective combat power. That it will take months to generate renewed fighting power.
– The first Russian campaign to invade and conquer Ukraine culminates without reaching its goals – it is defeated, in other words, mean think tank.
– Unless something remarkable happens to break the deadlock that is now settling, it will probably last for several months, is ISW’s latest analysis of the situation on the ground.
About a new offensive: – Will see if they can do it
Hågen Karlsen at the Norwegian Defense College emphasizes that the Russians must gather enough forces before launching a new offensive.
– They are now operating and gathering forces from all over Russia, from Siberia, they are gathering forces in Armenia, they are recruiting mercenaries, he points out.
– The disadvantage of this is of course that it takes a long time and it is demanding to put together these departments into larger units that can be merged effectively. Then everything must surely be moved to the areas around Kyiv where the Russians now have control. And it must be replenished, says Hågen Karlsen, and points out that they need huge amounts of ammunition and fuel.
– Then we will see if they can do it, if they can coordinate this, so they get superiority, says the lieutenant colonel.
– Can it take weeks or months to get enough fighting power for a new major offensive against Kyiv?
– We thought a few weeks ago that this would come much faster, but we have had to revise that assessment. Now it’s like that, yes, it can take weeks. I can not rule out that it can happen faster, but it can take weeks, Hågen Karlsen answers.
– Another problem is that they are fighting along the entire borders of eastern Ukraine and in the south as well. So they have a huge long front and have spread the forces very far. A military principle is gathering strength, that you deploy enough forces in one place that you are sure you can win, and once you have taken it, you take the next one.
– Now they have spread everywhere. So they have enormous challenges, says Hågen Karlsen.
Ukrainian counter-offensive near Kyiv and in the south
At the same time, Ukrainian authorities announced this week that they had taken back the city of Makariv (just over 50 kilometers west of Kyiv) and Moshcun (located a little northeast of Hostomel Airport):
Ukrainian authorities claim they are also on the offensive to retake areas around Kherson, which Russian forces seized on March 2.
Justin Bronk, from the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (Rusti), says BBC that Moscow may be forced to change tactics. Because they have failed in the advance to take Ukraine.
“So now they’re trying to pull back their resources and consolidate them and concentrate on one push at a time – especially around Mariupol and in the south,” Bronk told the BBC.
If Mariupol falls, Russian forces will take control of a contiguous area from the Crimean peninsula to the Donbas in the east.
– The most important thing for the Russians now is to get Mariupol taken, says Hågensen Karlsen at the Norwegian Defense College.
– Then they can end that operation and free up forces. As long as they fight, they tie up a lot of forces, Hågen Karlsen points out
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