The advance of the Ukrainian army is beyond all expectations. After the successful counterattack in the east, the Russians are now significantly pushed back in the south as well. The question is whether Ukraine can keep up with this once the harsh winter really begins.
Winter will have a lot of influence on the battlefield. The arrival of the first rain and then snow makes the attack more difficult, Dick Zandee said earlier against NU.nl. “Heavy equipment cannot drive over marshy land. The military is forced to drive on roads. This makes them vulnerable to drones,” explains the defense specialist from the Clingendael Institute.
Winter also throws a keystone in the work to supply the troops. Armies need weapons, food and drink, medical supplies and reinforcements. Snow and wet ground make it difficult to transport these things. And the weather will only get worse in the near future. For the Ukrainian army, the advance and reconquest of their territory must happen quickly. As winter approaches, the chances of this happening get smaller and smaller.
For the Russians there is less pressure on time. They can dig to defend their sites and at the same time arm themselves against frost. It is to the advantage of the Russians if the battle is stopped. This will give them time to prepare the new troops he intends to send to Ukraine.
Heavy equipment, such as tanks, cannot drive over soggy ground. Therefore, it becomes difficult for both sides to keep going through the winter.
Heavy equipment, such as tanks, cannot drive over soggy ground. Therefore, it becomes difficult for both sides to keep going through the winter. Photo: Getty Images
Winter replaces the Russians as the liberated cities’ greatest enemy
More and more Ukrainian cities have been liberated in recent weeks thanks to the advance of the army. But that doesn’t mean that life before the war can be resumed immediately. The inhabitants of Kharkiv for example, I am still without electricity, running water and heating. A gloomy prospect in a country where temperatures can drop at least twenty degrees below zero in winter.
In any case, Ukrainians should prepare for what is likely to happen harsher winters in decades. The national gas company Naftogaz does not expect to have enough gas to supply all households without outside help. According to director Yurii Vitrenko, “the warm-up starts later and ends earlier”. Ukrainians are advised to bring very warm clothes and blankets.
Ukraine accelerates counterattacks
The Ukrainian government and army are aware of the problems that winter brings. This is one of the reasons why the counterattacks are accelerating. They are also made possible by the Russian disorder, for which Ukraine is grateful.
The advance of the Ukrainian army began a month ago in the east. There, Ukraine quickly recaptured areas for which the Russians sometimes had to fight for months. Also in the South it goes fast. On the night between Monday and Tuesday, the Ukrainian armed forces recaptured the city of Dudchany. The day before they were still 30 kilometers north.
Ukraine is putting itself in a good position to defend the reconquered areas and make it through the winter. At least that’s the esteem of the United States Department of Defense. The Pentagon expects there will be less fighting during the winter. The first line will probably stop for the most part.
According to defense expert Ko Colijn, Russian President Vladimir Putin becomes more dangerous as Ukraine makes its way and regains ground. If the front doesn’t stabilize before winter, Putin might consider deploying (smaller) nuclear weapons. The likelihood of this is also military experts still small. Putin himself also sees the associated risks.
Russia can secretly hope for Western influence. For example, you would like to see the US quickly push Ukraine to the negotiating table. It will also probably be the best way for Ukraine itself to get through the winter. Despite the current success.
