How close will the 2024 US election be? A new forecast from CBS News, a channel that is actually considered to be on the Democratic side, is worrying for Kamala Harris. So far, she has not been able to break away from Trump in any swing states; in some, Trump is even ahead.
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It is therefore not yet possible to say whether Harris or Trump will win the race. The nervousness in both camps continues to increase. This is also evident in a new scandal surrounding Trump.
Election campaign excitement: Trump insults Harris as “mentally disabled”
The Republican recently insulted Harris as “mentally disabled.” At the same campaign event in Wisconsin, he again insulted President Joe Biden as “mentally impaired.” The incident is reminiscent of another scandal when Trump made fun of a physically disabled journalist in 2015.
Current poll: Race completely open
Back to the CBS forecast. According to this survey, Harris would currently (fairly) have 226 electors – Trump has 219. The US President is not directly elected, but the states send electors to the Electoral College depending on the results. This institution then elects the US head of state.
For a majority you need at least 270 votes. But in the important swing states, also known as battleground states, which are decisive for the election, the current polls are too narrow to be attributed to one side. According to CBS, it’s neck-and-neck everywhere. In Pennsylvania and Arizona, for example, Trump and Harris are each at 49 percent.
US election 2024: Anything is possible in the swing states
Trump is currently in the lead in the swing states Georgia (50 to 48 percent) and North Carolina (49 to 48 percent). Things currently look best for Harris in Nevada (50 to 47 percent) and Michigan (50 to 48 percent). But even in these states the gap is still too small to be considered secure for one of the candidates.
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The outcome of the 2024 election is therefore completely open. Only the final campaign spurt in October and early November and possibly individual failures, scandals or special moments from the candidates will bring the decision.
