New York and Washington. There are exactly 60 days left until the November 5 election and for now, there is a technical tie between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent Donald Trump according to the polls, and the road to the White House is full of obstacles, lawsuits, corruption and threats of possible violence. In other words, the new “normal” since the arrival on the national stage of the tycoon nine years ago.
The fact that there is a technical tie is good news for Democrats, who six weeks ago were losing the election to their then-candidate, President Joe Biden. But at the same time, it is extraordinary that there could be a tie against a former president who is formally accused of interfering in an election – what some call an attempted coup – in addition to facing formal charges in another federal case for illicit handling of secret official documents (overturned by a judge appointed by Trump, but which is under appeal by prosecutors), and state cases where he has already been found guilty of corporate fraud, sexual abuse, and is battling to stop another state case for electoral interference.
In the average of national surveys calculated by the New York TimesHarris has a 49 percent lead to Trump’s 46 percent. But this election, it bears repeating, is not something that will be decided nationally, but the final outcome will be determined by only about six or seven states out of 50, and by a few hundred thousand votes or less there – that is, 6 percent of voters in six states may end up determining the national outcome as reported The Day (
According to some estimates, 0.03 percent of the national vote – some 43,000 votes in Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona – was what gave Joe Biden the victory over Trump in 2020. In 2016, it was only 80,000 votes in key states that gave Trump the victory, reported The Guardian.
That is, because there is no direct vote to elect president in this country, the process is actually 50 simultaneous state elections with the majority winner in each state winning all of that state’s Electoral College electors. Under that system, a candidate can win the national vote by a wide margin, but lose the election.
The final stretch is therefore focused almost exclusively on those five to seven “key” states. According to polls, the Democrat has a slim lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan and is tied in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. That is good news, since just a few days ago Trump enjoyed a slim lead in four of those states.
Trump, who continues to navigate the gamut of presidential candidate and criminal defendant, pleaded not guilty through his lawyers (he was not present) Thursday to amended charges in his federal criminal case accusing him of election interference in the 2020 race. The case was essentially derailed by a ruling by the Supreme Court, whose conservative majority was secured by Trump’s appointments during his presidency, declaring that as president on the dates the crimes were committed, he enjoyed near-total immunity. The federal prosecutor in charge of the case amended the charges to try to move forward with the case.
But despite his busy schedule as a defendant in these proceedings, Trump and his party are preparing to trigger another electoral crisis by betting that the results will be very close in several key states, and as they did last time, to create a post-election legal conflict. They will also repeat accusations that unentitled immigrants are part of the alleged fraud that is being prepared; all without evidence.
Democrats are also preparing for that dispute, hiring dozens of lawyers and organizing a unit dedicated to “voter protection.”
In that case, the official conclusion of the election could be delayed, and greatly delayed, and once again risk a constitutional crisis. Not only that, but if Trump loses the election, there are constant predictions, even from anti-Trump Republicans, that the former president will do everything possible to sow chaos, and they do not rule out that he would call for an “insurrection” – something he does not hide at his rallies where he continues to insist that he did not lose the election in 2020 without offering any evidence.
In fact, to date – and as has become his custom – Trump has refused to commit to respecting the results of this year’s election, stating that “if it’s fair and legal and good,” he will do so – but he will be the judge of that. Furthermore, in a recent interview he claimed that “I had every right to interfere in that election,” precisely one of the crimes for which he is facing prosecution.
Harris, meanwhile, continues to focus on campaign events in key states and seek to build on the momentum she carried from the Democratic convention last month.
Meanwhile, in what promises to be the most expensive race ever—by several billion dollars—the systemic corruption of the process is evident in the enormous power of a few billionaire donors to both parties and candidates, whose dollars obviously have far more influence on policy positions than citizens’ votes.
The two candidates have a date on September 10 for their first – and apparently only – debate, which will be broadcast live nationwide.
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden’s youngest son, surprised prosecutors by offering to plead guilty to charges of tax misconduct and thereby avoid another trial, although the judge in charge of the case has not yet determined whether he will accept the proposal. If a plea bargain is agreed to, Biden Jr. faces a possible prison sentence. The case, like another previous trial, no longer has the same political implications as it once had since his father withdrew from the race.
#Harris #Trump #technical #tie #days #presidential #election
– 2024-09-09 03:51:37
