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To make a long story short
Sea view
– Hamas’ demands are unrealistic.
This was said by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a statement on Thursday evening.
The statement came as a result of Hamas – after weeks of negotiations – coming up with a proposal they call a “comprehensive” vision for a ceasefire and exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
Despite Netanyahu’s mention of the proposal, Israel’s war cabinet will discuss the proposal on Friday.
Middle East expert Dag Henrik Tuastad believes it is far more difficult for Israel to reject this proposal than the previous ones.
He still does not believe that this will stop Israel from entering overpopulated Rafah.
Now Gaza’s children are dying of hunger
Decisive order
In its draft, Hamas proposes that already in the first phase of the ceasefire they should release women, children and sick Israeli hostages. This is to be done in exchange for 700-1000 Palestinian prisoners.
This is reported by Reuters, which claims to have seen the proposal.
The Palestinian prisoners include 100 serving life sentences in Israeli prisons, and the release of female Israeli soldiers.
NO Ceasefire: There was no ceasefire until the fasting month of Ramadan, as many hoped. Now the hope is that Hamas’s latest proposal can lead to a temporary arms deal. Here, the first Friday prayer during Ramadan is held in front of the bombed out Al-Farouq mosque in Rafah on Friday. Photo: Mohammed Abed / AFP / NTB Show more
They also say that they will agree to a date for a permanent ceasefire only after this prisoner exchange has taken place, i.e. in phase two. The same applies to Hamas’s demand that Israel withdraw its forces from Gaza.
This is what Tuastad believes can make a difference.
Health workers in Gaza stripped and humiliated
– It is more difficult for Israel to reject this draft, because a ceasefire is badly needed now. There is an urgent need for it. And Hamas is not demanding a permanent ceasefire in the first phase.
There is great pressure from the families of the Israeli hostages to do everything to get them home.
Images of and reports of a starving population have simultaneously resulted in several international initiatives to get emergency aid into Gaza. This pressure has also meant that Israel has announced that it will now “flood” Gaza with emergency aid.
IN THE FOOD QUEUE: The population of Gaza suffers from a food shortage. According to the World Food Programme, the danger of famine is imminent. Here, children stand in a food queue in Rafah on 5 March. Mohammed Salem/ Reuters / NTB Show more
– Unlikely
– There is international pressure to prevent us from entering Rafah and completing the job, Netanyahu said on Thursday.
Israel will not give in to this pressure, he emphasized.
– We are going to enter Rafah. We will complete the elimination of Hamas and its battalions. We will restore security and ensure that the Israeli people and the Israeli state are victorious, Netanyahu said.
Rafah is now home to around 1.5 million Palestinians, the vast majority of them internally displaced people who live in makeshift tents.
It is this situation, that Israel will enter the last town in Gaza where the desperate civilian population has a place to stay, that has garnered international criticism and strong warnings that there will be a “bloodbath”.
Five died when they were hit by emergency aid dropped from a plane, Gaza health authorities reported on March 8. Reporter: Marte Nyløkken Helseth / Dagbladet TV. view more
Tuastad believes it is unlikely that Netanyahu would turn his back on Rafah.
– There is strong pressure from the Americans on Israel’s war cabinet, but Netanyahu primarily wants to be allowed to continue for as long as possible. Israel has taken everything in Gaza apart from Rafah, so I see it as somewhat unlikely that they will agree to a permanent ceasefire until they have taken Rafah as well, says Tuastad to Dagbladet.
Growing dissatisfaction: – Strategic blunder
He also believes Netanyahu has other incentives to not approve a permanent ceasefire: The increasingly tense tone with the US.
– If Netanyahu keeps this going, the Americans will soon be so engrossed in their own election campaign that Israel will once again be allowed to do as they please.
WAITING: The world holds its breath as Israel and Hamas negotiate a new deal. Here locals sit next to a bombed-out house in Rafah. Photo: Ibraheem Abu Mustafa / Reuters / NTB Show more
The prisoners crucial
Tuastad believes that it is the number and which prisoners Hamas manages to get released in a prisoner exchange, which will be the sticking point for the group.
– It is only a matter of time before Hamas loses the tunnels in Gaza, including Rafah. But at the same time, it is not the case that all of Hamas’ fighters are sitting down in the tunnels and waiting. There are still many who are part of, and are mixed with, the civilian population, and these are difficult to identify. That is the problem with Israel’s goals, says Tuastad.
Regardless of how Hamas’s defeat in Gaza will look, the prisoners will determine the extent to which they have succeeded.
– If they can, for example, release the military leader and politician Marwan Barghouti, then Hamas will emerge victorious, says Tuastad.
2024-03-16 10:59:53
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