Original title: Guotai Junan Securities: A-share valuation increase slows down and structural sentiment remains high
After the rapid rise at the beginning of the year, the market has returned to turbulence in the past two weeks, the valuation of A shares has slowed down significantly, and the valuation of large-cap stocks has been weak. In the past two weeks, the market has returned to turmoil under the adjustment of the group stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose only 1.02%, and the increase in valuation slowed down significantly during the turbulence. At the same time, under the blue chip bubble of A-shares, the valuation structure in the past two weeks has diverged, and the mid-market performance is significantly better than the large and small caps. At present, the CSI 300 valuation quintile has exceeded 95%, and the valuation quintile has only increased by 0.7%, while the CSI 500 valuation quintile is still at a low level of 40.0%, and the valuation quintile has increased by 6.1%. However, the current market trading sentiment is still high, and the blue-chip leader group will be difficult to disintegrate in the short term before the liquidity turning point is seen. At the same time, it can strengthen the focus on the investment direction of the south. In terms of risk premium, the continued widening trend of credit spreads after the Yongmei incident ended and entered a downward channel, consistent with the direction of equity risk premium.
Valuation: The increase in valuation slows down, and the mid-cap is stronger than the small-cap
1) Sectors: In the past two weeks, the upward speed of valuations of various sectors has slowed down significantly. The SSE 50, CSI 300, and SSE 180 PE historical percentile changes were all less than 1.5%, and only the CSI 500 rose significantly. The current CSI 500 PE is 29.44 (0.85), which is 40.0% (6.1%) in the historical quantile.
2) Style: The valuation of various styles has slowed down in the past two weeks. Growth, cyclical, and financial valuations have narrowed upwards, and the stability sector has significantly declined. From the perspective of size and style, the mid-cap is stronger than the large and small.
3) Industries: The valuations of various industries have fluctuated, with banks, electronics, and computers rising sharply. Non-bank financials declined significantly, with insurance falling the most, while mining, commercial trade, etc. also experienced significant declines.
4) Overseas: The major indexes have fallen at high levels and have risen. The Nasdaq index continued to fall sharply, and only the Nikkei 225 and the Korea Composite Index rose slightly.
Risk premium: ERP is low in three years, credit spreads are now turning points
1) ERP: Wandequan A ERP continues the slow downward trend of the previous period, with a decline of 0.01% in the past two weeks, which is the lowest in the past three years. The latest value of Wonder A ERP is 2.50%.
2) Credit spreads: Credit spreads and equity risk premiums are in the same direction. After the previous inflection point of industrial bonds fell, the current urban investment bond credit spreads have also seen a downward inflection point.
Sentiment: The size of transaction data is differentiated, and structural sentiment is still high
1) Large market value transactions are active, and the proportion of small and medium market value in the daily limit distribution has risen. The turnover rate of the major indexes and the transaction amount changed from the previous period’s general upward trend, and there was a significant difference in size. The leading transactions of large market capitalization were active. In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rates of SSE 50 (26.1%), SSE 180 (22.7%) and CSI 300 (23.6%) all grew by more than 20% month-on-month, while CSI 500 (-7.3%) turnover rate Significant decline. The turnover performance is the same as the turnover rate. In terms of price limit, the number of households with the price limit continued to rise, and the number of households with the price limit continued to decline. From the perspective of the market value distribution of the price limit, the market value distribution of the price limit has been significantly reversed in this period. The percentage of the daily limit of the small market value of less than 5 billion has risen, and the percentage of the limit has fallen. The percentage of the market value of 20 billion has decreased and the percentage of the limit has increased. . In terms of financing and securities lending, the balance of margin financing and securities lending exceeded 1.700 billion, and the amount of financing purchases accounted for the total A turnover and continued to rise.
2) The number of newly opened accounts continued to rise in December, and the search interest in the stock market continued to rise. The number of new accounts on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December was 2,698,600, an increase of 5.77% from the 2.5515 million in November. The Baidu Index, WeChat Index and Weibo Micro Index increased by 20.2%, 14.8% and 10.3% month-on-month.
Source: Guotai Junan Securities
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