Guide to observing the presidential election on Tuesday

Washington and New York. Polls open in most states at 6 a.m. local time this Tuesday. One of the few variables that will be available throughout the day will be the level of turnout, and analysts here are watching that in the key states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.

In the 2020 presidential election, about two-thirds of the electorate cast their votes, the highest level since 1900, but it is not expected to be as high this time. Much will depend on which segments of the electorate decide to participate to determine who might have the advantage.

The voting system for president: the Electoral College

There is no direct vote for president, but each of the 50 states conducts an election with its own rules and under state, not federal, supervision, in a system where the presidential candidate who receives the majority of the popular vote does not necessarily win the White House. , something that has already happened twice this century.

After each state counts the votes, the majority winner of each state is awarded all of that state’s votes in the so-called Electoral College (there are a few exceptions). The total of 538 Electoral College votes It is divided among all states proportionally to the population of each entity. The candidate who accumulates 270 electoral college votes by winning a combination of state elections will be the next president.

For all but 7 states, pollsters and analysts agree that the winners in those states are already determined (by their voting history and demographics). Under these assumptions, the consensus is that Harris starts with 19 states in her column that will give her a total of 226 of the 270 electoral votes she needs. Trump starts with 24 states where the majority will vote for him, offering 219 electoral votes. It is worth noting that if either of the two loses in a state where it was thought they would win, the electoral map changes and it would be a worrying sign for that candidate.

In the end, Harris and Trump are struggling to win a sufficient combination of the 7 undefined states and therefore considered key, to obtain or exceed the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. The number of electoral votes of the 7 are: Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).

When will we know who won?

Due to the very close margins that the polls predict in the race both nationally and in the key states, it will not necessarily be known when election night ends, and it cannot be ruled out that it would be until Saturday or even several weeks, especially all if the disputes over the results in one or several states are presented to the courts – as happened in 2000 in the contest between Al Gore and George W. Bush where the case reached the Supreme Court which decided the winner of the election but not until December.

Vote counting in some states is also slow. In addition, more than 75 million have already cast their early vote and in some key states, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, electoral authorities cannot begin counting that vote until election day.

In Pennsylvania, for example, nearly 1.8 million voted before Election Day, but the counting of that vote will begin while authorities are also administering Tuesday’s election process.

Once the polls close, the first indications of possible results could emerge from exit polls. But final results will take longer, and as was the case in the previous election, results in several key states were not released for days.

The first results will begin to be reported around 5 p.m. -Mexico time- when the first polls close in Kentucky and Indiana, but those two would only be significant if Trump loses in one of them since they are considered safe for Republicans – a factor What could change that forecast is because of the issue of the right to abortion. The other results in key states will only begin to be known at the time of closing of the polls, and although the officials will take a while in many cases, the Associated Press agency and other national media will be broadcasting the results of the polls at the polls and projections as soon as possible. as soon as possible. The closing times and the start of waiting for results are as follows, all Mexico time:

Georgia 6 p.m., authorities have until 10 p.m. and 59 minutes to report initial results, trends could be detected earlier. It is worth remembering that the Democratic candidate won only by about 11,700 votes.

North Carolina 6:30 p.m. A state that until recently was considered Republican, Trump won by just 3 points in 2016 and a single point in 2020. Harris has invested a lot of time ahYo. If the first indications are against Trump in that entity, it would be one of the first signs of a possible national defeat.

Ohio 6:30 p.m. Although it is not among those considered to be hinge states, there could be a welcome surprise there for Harris.

Pennsylvania 7 p.m.: Official results could take a while, or may not even be available until the next day or more. But the polls at the polls and the level of participation in urban areas that favor Harris in relation to participation in rural areas that prefer Trump, will offer some indications of who is winning this state essential for a victory for the Democrats. A victory for Trump would be a first indication that he could return to the White House.

Wisconsin and Michigan 20 hours. Results in Michigan could be reported quickly since early voting will already be counted under that state’s rules. Wisconsin only allows early vote counting to begin on Election Day and therefore could take time. These are important states for Harris since the easiest path to national victory is to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan – even if she loses in all of the other 7 key states. But for the same reason, a victory for Trump in any of these three states would be bad news for Harris, from which she can only be saved if she prospers in Georgia, Arizona or Nevada. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (all of which the Democrat was expected to win).

Nevada, Arizona 9 p.m. The powerful, mostly Latino, hotel workers union has achieved victories for Democrats in Nevada, but a Trump victory could indicate that Democrats have lost the loyalty of these union members and the Latino community who would vote for the Republican because of his economic promises. . Fox News’ decision to project Biden as the winner in Arizona was the biggest sign that Trump had been defeated in 2015. Once again, Trump needs Arizona for a victory.