Guatemala’s Unlikely Presidential Hopeful: Bernardo Arevalo’s Fight Against Corruption

Bernardo Arevalo, a 64-year-old sociologist and anti-corruption campaigner, has defied expectations by securing a top spot in the first round of Guatemala’s presidential election. Arevalo, the son of former President Juan Jose Arevalo, came in second place with just under 12% of the vote, a significant achievement in a race where no candidate won more than 16% of votes. His success can be attributed to the exclusion of several popular candidates who posed a challenge to the status quo, as well as public discontent with the other candidates, as evidenced by the high number of blank ballots.

However, there are now doubts being cast over the election results, with some denying the legitimacy of the outcome. Even the U.S. government has expressed concerns about possible interference in Guatemala’s presidential election. The election in this small Central American nation, with a population of almost 17 million, could have far-reaching implications for the region, particularly in relation to the United States and its efforts to secure the southern border.

The Biden administration may find itself facing a familiar situation, as it has already dealt with a surge in migration triggered by the fallout of the presidential elections in neighboring Nicaragua. President Daniel Ortega locked up numerous political opponents ahead of the 2021 elections, leading to a significant increase in Nicaraguans seeking refuge in the United States. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered Nicaraguan migrants nearly 165,000 times in fiscal year 2022.

Arevalo’s appeal lies in his sincerity and academic background, which resonated with young voters. Despite lacking the populist approach of other candidates, Arevalo’s straightforward explanations and absence of slogans or catchy messaging struck a chord with the electorate. In contrast, one of the excluded candidates, conservative businessman Carlos Pineda, had utilized the popular video-sharing app TikTok to gain early popularity.

The vote count in Guatemala has been delayed due to allegations of counting irregularities raised by 10 of the 29 parties that fielded candidates. While independent election monitors found few signs of wrongdoing, Guatemala’s top court agreed to freeze the formal certification of the first-round results. This intervention is seen as a tactic by the establishment factions to cast doubt on the integrity of the vote and buy time to coordinate in case Arevalo, who has promised sweeping anti-corruption reforms, emerges as the winner in the second round.

Guatemala’s Constitutional Court has ordered a review of precincts with contested vote tallies, with a conclusion expected to be reached late this week or early next. Despite the certification delay, it is anticipated that the top two vote-getters from the first round, Arevalo and Sandra Torres, will eventually move forward to compete in a second-round vote scheduled for August 20. Torres, a veteran political operator, is aiming to become Guatemala’s first female leader on her third run for president.

The outcome of the election and any potential undermining of the results could have significant implications for emigration flows and U.S. border policy. More than 220,000 Guatemalans crossed into the U.S. via the Mexico border in 2022, and the Biden administration has been working with Guatemala to manage the irregular migration challenge. If the first-round results are undermined, it would pose a grave threat to democracy and could lead to an

How does the recent surge in migration from Nicaragua impact the situation in Guatemala and its political stability

Nates with voters looking for a leader who can bring about real change. As a sociologist, he has dedicated his career to studying and addressing societal issues, making him well-equipped to tackle corruption, a major problem in Guatemala. His family’s political legacy and his status as an anti-corruption campaigner further bolster his credibility.

However, the doubts surrounding the election results threaten to undermine the progress that Arevalo has made. If the legitimacy of the outcome is called into question, it could lead to political instability and further discontent among the population. This is particularly concerning given the recent surge in migration from Nicaragua, which has strained resources and heightened tensions at the southern border.

The Biden administration must closely monitor the situation in Guatemala to prevent a repeat of the migration crisis caused by the Nicaraguan elections. By ensuring a fair and transparent process, and by supporting efforts to combat corruption, the U.S. can help stabilize the region and mitigate the risks to its own security.

Ultimately, the success of Arevalo in the first round of Guatemala’s presidential election reflects the desire for change among the population. However, this achievement must be treated with caution, as the true test lies in the coming rounds and the ability to address the concerns and doubts surrounding the electoral process. It is a critical moment for Guatemala, one that will have implications beyond its borders, making international support and scrutiny vital for a successful transition of power.