Guatemala’s Surprising Second-Place Candidate Vows to Tackle Corruption

Bernardo Arevalo, a 64-year-old sociologist and anti-corruption campaigner, has defied expectations by securing a top spot in the first round of Guatemala’s presidential election. Arevalo, the son of former President Juan Jose Arevalo, came in second place with just under 12% of the vote, a significant achievement in a race where no candidate won more than 16% of votes. His success can be attributed to the exclusion of several popular candidates who posed a challenge to the status quo, as well as public discontent with the other candidates, as evidenced by the high number of blank ballots.

However, there are now doubts being cast over the election results, with some denying the legitimacy of the outcome. Even the U.S. government has expressed concerns about possible interference in Guatemala’s presidential election. The election in this small Central American nation, with its close ties to the United States and its role in securing the southern border, could have far-reaching implications.

The Biden administration may find itself facing a familiar situation, as it has already dealt with a surge in migration triggered by the fallout of the presidential elections in neighboring Nicaragua. President Daniel Ortega locked up political opponents ahead of the elections in 2021, leading to a significant increase in Nicaraguans seeking refuge in the United States. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered Nicaraguan migrants nearly 165,000 times in fiscal year 2022.

Arevalo’s appeal lies in his sincerity and academic background, which resonated with young voters. Despite lacking the populist appeal of other candidates, Arevalo’s straightforward approach and focus on his anti-corruption platform struck a chord with the electorate. In contrast, one of the excluded candidates, conservative businessman Carlos Pineda, gained early popularity through his use of TikTok videos.

The vote count in Guatemala has been delayed due to allegations of counting irregularities raised by several parties. Guatemala’s top court has frozen the formal certification of the first-round results and ordered a review of contested vote tallies. This intervention is seen as a delaying tactic by the establishment factions in Guatemala, who have long controlled the country’s politics. They aim to cast doubt on the integrity of the vote and buy time to coordinate their actions in case Arevalo, who has promised sweeping anti-corruption reforms, emerges as the winner in the second round.

The outcome of the election will determine whether Guatemala experiences continuity under Sandra Torres, a veteran political operator, or change under Arevalo, whose father was president before being overthrown in a CIA-backed coup in 1954. The vote has significant implications for emigration flows and U.S. border policy. More than 220,000 Guatemalans crossed into the U.S. via the Mexico border in 2022, prompting the U.S. and Guatemala to announce a pilot program to manage irregular migration. If the first-round results are undermined, it could pose a grave threat to democracy and potentially lead to an increase in migration.

Guatemala, like other Central American nations, lacks institutional mechanisms to fight corruption, which robs its people of a future and drives them to seek opportunities elsewhere. Arevalo’s popularity among young voters reflects their dissatisfaction with the oligarchs and the old-guard playing dirty political tricks. His initial success in the first round serves as a reminder

What specific measures has Ates proposed to tackle corruption in the Guatemalan government and ensure transparency and accountability?

Ates, his anti-corruption stance struck a chord with a population tired of widespread corruption and political scandals. He has vowed to tackle corruption head-on, promising transparency and accountability in government, a message that has clearly resonated with many Guatemalans.

However, doubts have been raised about the legitimacy of the election results. Some have questioned the exclusion of popular candidates who posed a challenge to the political establishment, raising concerns about interference and manipulation. Even the U.S. government has expressed concerns about possible interference in the election, highlighting the importance of ensuring a fair and transparent electoral process.

The outcome of the election in Guatemala is significant not only for the country itself but also for its relationship with the United States. Guatemala has close ties to the U.S., particularly in terms of immigration and border security. The Biden administration is already dealing with a surge in migration triggered by the fallout of the presidential elections in neighboring Nicaragua, and a similar situation could arise with Guatemala.

The appeal of Arevalo, with his sincerity and academic background, has captured the attention and support of young voters. His anti-corruption stance has been seen as a fresh start for Guatemala, promising a break from the corruption and political scandals of the past. It remains to be seen how he will navigate the challenges ahead and fulfill his promises, but his rise in the first round of the election is a significant achievement in a race where no candidate won a clear majority.

The future of Guatemala’s presidential election hangs in the balance, with doubts and concerns about its legitimacy. The outcome will have far-reaching implications, not only for Guatemala but also for its relationship with the United States. As the country moves forward, it will be crucial to ensure a fair and transparent electoral process that upholds the will of the people.