Guatemala’s Presidential Election Faces Allegations of Fraud and Interference

Bernardo Arevalo, a 64-year-old sociologist and anti-corruption campaigner, has defied expectations by securing a top spot in the first round of Guatemala’s presidential election. Arevalo, the son of former President Juan Jose Arevalo, came in second place with just under 12% of the vote, a significant achievement in a race where no candidate won more than 16% of votes. His success can be attributed to the exclusion of several popular candidates who posed a challenge to the status quo, as well as public discontent with the other candidates, as evidenced by the high number of blank ballots.

However, there are now doubts being cast over the election results, with some denying the legitimacy of the outcome. Even the U.S. government has expressed concerns about possible interference in Guatemala’s presidential election. The election in this small Central American nation, with its close ties to the United States and its role in securing the southern border, could have far-reaching implications.

The Biden administration may find itself facing a familiar situation, as it has already dealt with a surge in migration triggered by the fallout of the presidential elections in neighboring Nicaragua. President Daniel Ortega locked up political opponents ahead of the elections in 2021, leading to a significant increase in Nicaraguans seeking refuge in the United States. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered Nicaraguan migrants nearly 165,000 times in fiscal year 2022.

Arevalo’s appeal lies in his sincerity and academic background, which resonated with young voters. Despite lacking the populist appeal of other candidates, Arevalo’s straightforward approach and focus on his anti-corruption platform struck a chord with the electorate. In contrast, one of the excluded candidates, conservative businessman Carlos Pineda, gained early popularity through his use of TikTok videos.

The vote count in Guatemala has been delayed due to allegations of counting irregularities raised by several parties. Guatemala’s top court has frozen the formal certification of the first-round results and ordered a review of contested vote tallies. This intervention is seen as a delaying tactic by the establishment factions in Guatemala, who are seeking to cast doubt on the integrity of the vote. They are buying time to coordinate in case Arevalo, who has promised sweeping anti-corruption reforms, emerges as the winner in the second round.

The outcome of the election will determine whether Guatemala experiences continuity or change. Sandra Torres, a veteran political operator who has faced corruption allegations, represents continuity, while Arevalo symbolizes change. Arevalo’s father was president before being overthrown in a CIA-backed coup in 1954, which led to a civil war and decades of corruption.

The election results in Guatemala have implications for emigration flows and U.S. border policy. More than 220,000 Guatemalans crossed into the U.S. via the Mexico border in 2022. In an effort to manage irregular migration, the U.S. and Guatemala announced a pilot program in June. However, if the first-round results are undermined, it could pose a grave threat to democracy and potentially lead to an increase in migration.

Guatemala, like other Central American nations, lacks institutional mechanisms to fight corruption, which robs people of their future and drives them to seek opportunities elsewhere. Arevalo’s popularity among young voters reflects their dissatisfaction

What potential implications could the concerns over the election’s legitimacy have on Guatemala’s relationship with the United States and its ability to address migration issues

Some other candidates, his focus on anti-corruption attracted support from those disillusioned with the political establishment.

However, concerns about the election’s legitimacy are mounting. Reports of possible interference have raised doubts about the fairness of the process, with some voices questioning the credibility of the results. Even the U.S. government has expressed apprehension over potential meddling in Guatemala’s presidential election, highlighting the potential impact this could have on the country’s relationship with its northern neighbor.

This situation holds significance for the Biden administration, which has already faced challenges regarding migration due to political unrest in Nicaragua. In the aftermath of the country’s 2021 presidential elections, President Daniel Ortega cracked down on political opponents, sparking a surge in Nicaraguan refugees seeking protection in the United States. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered over 165,000 Nicaraguan migrants in fiscal year 2022, underscoring the complexity of managing such situations.

Despite the uncertainties surrounding the election, Arevalo has managed to garner support due to his sincerity and academic background. His focus on combating corruption struck a chord with many young voters, who viewed him as an alternative to the established political elite. While lacking the populist charm of some candidates, Arevalo’s appeal lies in his authenticity and commitment to addressing systemic issues.

As the election process unfolds and the concerns over legitimacy persist, it remains to be seen how Arevalo’s candidacy will shape Guatemala’s political landscape. The outcome of this election, along with its potential implications for governance and stability, will undoubtedly have far-reaching effects on the country’s relationship with the United States and its role in addressing migration issues in the region.