Mexico City. Economic analysts surveyed biweekly by Citibanamex lowered their economic growth estimate for this year, from 1.9 to 1.7 percent, according to the latest Expectations Survey conducted by this financial institution.
According to the survey, conducted among analysis areas of banks, brokerage firms, among other financial entities, Masari Casa de Bolsa and Vector are the institutions with the best projection, as they expect activity to advance at a rate of 2.3 percent.
Thorne & Associates and UBS project GDP to grow at a rate of 2.2 percent; Epicurus Investments expects economic growth to be 2.1 percent, while Barclays and Invex expect the advance to be 2 percent.
The survey indicates that the specialists consulted by Citibanamex now expect the Bank of Mexico (BdeM) to cut the interest rate by the September monetary policy meeting.
“The consensus estimates that the next move to the monetary policy rate will be a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting. In the previous survey, the median expectation was for a cut of that magnitude at this Thursday’s meeting,” he said.
The central bank currently has its reference rate, which is the cost at which businesses and families obtain financing, at 11 percent, one of the highest levels in its aim to control inflation through monetary policy.
“Of the 33 respondents, 10 expect a cut at the August meeting, 18 at the September meeting, and 5 see it later. The benchmark rate is expected to end the year at 10.5 percent, up from the 10.25 percent forecast in the previous survey.”
The median estimate for the exchange rate at the end of this year is 19 pesos per dollar, a level higher than the 18.80 units per greenback two weeks ago, while for inflation, specialists anticipate that it will close at 4.6 percent, while 15 days ago it was 4.4 percent.
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– 2024-08-06 22:52:13
