The impact of the war in Ukraine would reduce the growth of Italian GDP by around 2% in 2022-2023 in the “intermediate” scenario, which foresees a continuation of hostilities.
This is indicated by the economic bulletin of the Bank of Italy, which provides three different possible frameworks. In the event of a rapid resolution of the conflict, growth would be around 3% in 2022 and 2023. In the most serious scenario, which also assumes an interruption of Russian gas flows only partially offset by other sources, GDP would decrease by almost half a percentage point in 2022-2023.
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