The National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr), with which Italy intends to use the approximately 200 billion that the EU makes available to us until 2026, represents an important opportunity, but it must not be considered a panacea for all delays in our economy, Daniele Franco warned yesterday speaking at the annual meeting of ABI, the Italian banking association. Only if there is a joint effort, the Minister of Economy warned, will the results be seen. Indeed, the NRRR gives us the possibility of more than doubling the potential growth rate from 0.6% pre-pandemic to 1.4% with the completion of the reforms, says Franco. The implementation of the plan, the minister admits, will not be easy, due to the many investments to be made quickly and the need to launch reforms. Among these, that of the tax authorities which, Franco said, must in any case take place in a prospective context of equilibrium of the public budget. In short, it will not cost too much.
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The boost of consumption
To accompany growth, Franco added, fiscal policy will remain expansionary also in 2022, albeit with a much lower deficit. The prospects are good. Starting from this year: Estimates indicate economic growth close to 2% in the second quarter and today a GDP recovery equal to or greater than 5% appears to be achievable, thanks above all to consumption which could give an important boost starting from the third quarter . Economic activity should return to pre-covid levels by the third quarter of 2022. Even the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, in his speech to the assembly, said that thanks to the improvement in the health framework, GDP on average of the year could touch values around 5%.
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The role of banks
For the success of the recovery plan we are counting on the active role of the banks, Franco said, observing that during the pandemic they helped the economy rather than being a problem as happened in the financial crisis of 2007-8, thanks also to their greater capital strength. . The banks, assured the president of ABI, Antonio Patuelli, are in the front row to build a new possible economic miracle after in the pandemic crisis they have been engaged in the colossal work of 2.3 million new or increased loans and in different millions of moratorium files. All initiatives, said Patuelli, which will have to gradually decrease only after the recovery has developed. According to Visco, the banks have also reacted well overall. There are signs of recovery in non-performing loans but the increase in new non-performing loans should t turn out to be less than in previous recessions, thanks to government support measures, low interest rates and good economic prospects. The crisis, the governor noted, has prompted banks to review their business models, including with restructuring plans and possible mergers. Bank of Italy is following this process closely, certainly not to guide its outcome according to pre-established programs but to ensure that it leads to more solid intermediaries.
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Deposits growing
Banks also saw a sharp rise in deposits during the pandemic. In May, those of families had reached about 900 billion, 7% more than a year earlier. Those of companies almost 460 billion, with a jump of 16%. According to Visco, they will go down with the return to normalcy, but the governor also suggests that banks can offer customers, in careful compliance with the legislation protecting retail investment, asset management products that allow them to direct resources towards business. productive, also in the form of risk capital so as to contribute to the necessary rebalancing of the financial structure of companies. According to Patuelli, Italian savers must be encouraged to invest not only in government bonds, but also in convertible bonds and shares, fiscally distinguishing the medium- and long-term investments of “drawer holders”, which must not be equated with speculators. The president of ABI finally asked to put a stop to the disorder of crypto currencies and criticized the excesses of rigidity, such as the new definition of default and the rigid calendar of deterioration and devaluation of loans that were thought out well before Covid.
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