Maritime Disputes in Asia: A Growing Concern for Global Stability
Palawan: A Forgotten Island Full of Tensions
Over a decade ago, a small and overlooked island in the Philippines caught my attention during my extensive research on China’s historical power projection. Palawan, located south of Manila, seemed like any other remote region until I discovered the significance of Second Thomas Shoal, located in its vicinity. An old warship, the BRP Sierra Madre, intentionally grounded by the Philippines as a show of territorial ownership, became the focus of a territorial dispute with China. Chinese coast guard vessels closely guarded the area, preventing any repairs from taking place. Even with the issue brought to an international tribunal, tensions persisted, creating a provocative standoff.
Evolving Complexity and Dangers
Since my visit, the dynamic between China and its neighboring nations has undergone profound changes. Today, President Joe Biden of the United States is engaged in diplomatic discussions with both Japan and the Philippines, emphasizing the importance of maritime disputes in the region. Japan, in its dispute with China over the Senkaku Islands, and the Philippines, in its conflict over the South China Sea, have found themselves interconnected in an increasingly complex situation. The inclusion of Taiwan and the potential for China to use force in achieving its territorial goals further exacerbate the tensions, amplifying global concerns over the potential for large-scale conflict.
A Decade of Transformations
Several significant developments have unfolded in the past decade. In 2016, the Philippines achieved a landmark victory at the Hague, invalidating China’s historical rights to the seas surrounding the Spratly Islands. However, Beijing remained defiant, enforcing its extensive claims across the South China Sea and constructing and militarizing artificial islands. Meanwhile, the election of Rodrigo Duterte as the President of the Philippines led to a shift in the country’s foreign policy, moving away from the United States and closer to China in hopes of economic transformation.
The implications of changing global dynamics emerged during Donald Trump’s presidency, as his administration cast doubt on long-standing alliances and commitments in Asia. Joe Biden’s subsequent attempts to strengthen these alliances, along with the acknowledgment of China’s growing influence, reflect the urgency to counterbalance China’s ascension as a major power. With Washington’s focus on containment and the broader aim of peaceful coexistence, alliances with countries such as Japan and the potential inclusion of Australia showcase a systemic effort to address the prevailing concerns.
Unresolved Challenges Cast a Dark Shadow
Despite these efforts, a critical piece of the puzzle remains missing: a clear pathway towards peaceful coexistence in the midst of these complex maritime disputes. Convincing China to relinquish its military assertiveness in the Taiwan Strait and to retreat from extensive claims in the East and South China Seas demonstrates a daunting task.
The absence of any concrete solutions leaves the world on edge. History reminds us that the conflicts of great powers rarely end with peaceful resolutions. Instead, innovative and creative approaches, which have yet to present themselves, are urgently needed to build mutual understanding and prevent the escalation of these disputes. The clock is ticking, and as each day passes, the nature of these conflicts becomes increasingly perilous.
