A Taiwan-US multinational collaborative research team led by Professor Fang Qitai from the Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine at the School of Public Health at National Taiwan University discovered the key behind the success of M-pox prevention and treatment in the United States: the strong synergistic effect between vaccines and health education. This result is expected to be universal. It can be applied to other infectious diseases that can be prevented and treated through vaccine prevention and behavioral intervention, providing an important reference for future prevention and control strategies of emerging infectious diseases.The research results were published on January 5, 2024 in eClinicalMedicine: Part of The Lancet Discovery Science。
In May 2022, Mpox (mpox) began to have clusters of cases in the UK and other previously unendemic areas, and subsequently large-scale outbreaks occurred in Europe and North America. The WHO issued a global epidemic warning on July 23 of that year, classifying Mpox as a new wave of “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC) after COVID-19. The epidemic strain of the 2022-2023 global outbreak is the new Mpox virus strain Clade IIb. Although the pathogenicity and fatality rate are low, its strong human-to-human transmission ability makes the epidemic spread rapidly, especially those with sexual contact with men. High risk group. In the face of the Mpox outbreak crisis, in addition to actively promoting vaccination in a timely manner, community organizations and public health agencies have also actively educated high-risk groups to reduce risky sexual behaviors. However, the epidemic in the United States has declined and been brought under control after reaching its peak in August 2022. Whether it is due to the effect of vaccines and public health education is still unresolved.
In order to clarify the effectiveness of vaccines and health education on the prevention and control of Mpox in the United States, the research team constructed a mathematical model to simulate the spread of Mpox in the United States, and fitted the epidemic curve of Mpox cases in the United States from May 22 to December 22, 2022. Successfully estimated the effect of 2 doses of vaccine administration and crisis awareness of high-risk groups on the prevention and control of the Mpox epidemic in the United States. The results showed that the basic reproductive numbers (R0) of M. pox in high-risk groups and low-risk groups were 3.88 and 0.39 respectively. It is estimated that 71.8% of M. pox cases come from high-risk groups. Without health education, the number of vaccinations that can be completed within the tight time limit can only prevent 21.2% (10.2%–24.1%) of cases; without vaccination, health education alone can only rely on sexual behavior changes caused by crisis awareness among high-risk groups. Only 15.4% (14.3%–20.6%) of cases could be prevented. But in fact, the United States has successfully controlled the Mpox epidemic in the United States because of the strong synergism achieved by implementing two public health measures at the same time, preventing 64.0% (43.8%–69.0%) of cases.
The first author of this study, Lin Yinqian, is a student in the master’s class of the Institute of Preventive Medicine for Infectious Diseases under the guidance of Professor Fang Qitai. Other members of the research team include Sten H. Vermund, professor at Yale University School of Public Health, Wen Zaihong, professor at the Department of Geography at National Taiwan University, and Shi Weiliang, project assistant professor at the Ministry of Health and Welfare and National Taiwan University Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Research and Education Center. We would like to thank the National Taiwan University Group Health and Welfare Research Center for the funding support of the Higher Education Deepening Program of the Ministry of Education.
Full text of research results:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(23)00584-9/fulltext
Professor Fang Qitai from the Institute of Preventive Medicine for Infectious Diseases:https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/cris/rp/rp06639
2024-04-10 08:11:41
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