O 2-2 draw with Flamengo, at home, may even have been valued by the Guild because of the team’s reaction after conceding two goals, but it didn’t help in the fight to try and escape relegation in the brazilian. On the contrary. The result, in a delayed match of the second round, made even more necessary a streak of victories that the team never achieved in the current championship. Currently, the projection of points to stay out of the Z4 makes the club from Rio Grande do Sul need 10 points in the four final matches.
That is, the Guild he would need to win three games and draw the fourth duel. The team will face Bahia (away from home), São Paulo (at home), Corinthians (outside) and Atlético-MG (home).
Today, Grêmio has 36 points and occupies 18th place in the standings. The distance to the first team outside the relegation zone is four points. Juventude, ranked 16th with 40 points, is the beacon of mathematics for achievement.
According to the department of mathematics and statistics at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais), the safest score to escape relegation — right now — is 46 points. With 45 points, teams will have a 17% chance of dropping to Serie B.
“It’s important for us to know what will be needed, but in each round there is a surprise. I don’t know if in the weekend round we will have the same panorama as this one. But nothing will take away this need to add nine, 10 or even seven (points). What the history of the championship shows, and this year the score is higher, is that nine more (points) are needed. Let’s look for 12, not nine,” said Vagner Mancini, Grêmio coach , after the game with Flamengo.
The problem is that Grêmio never got nine points in three straight games. With Felipão, there were two streaks of two victories. Mancini achieved the same record recently, leading the team in triumphs against Red Bull Bragantino e Chapecoense.
The Grêmio idea was always to take advantage of Flamengo’s reserve team, on the eve of the Cup final liberators, to amend an unpublished sequence. Add points and gain morale for the decisive straight of the championship. Now the math just got harder.
Grêmio returns to the field against Bahia, on Friday (26), at 19:00 (GMT), in a duel against a direct rival in the fight against relegation. Brenno and Jhonata Robert, expelled, and Lucas Silva, who received the third yellow card, are out of the match. Kannemann, with pain in the hip, will be reevaluated after becoming low at the last minute against Flamengo.
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