Green Shoots on Credit: Signs of Rebound in Bank Loans and Mortgages

At the bank you will green shoots on credit. After months of drought, the tap was opened again at the end of last year and has continued at the start of 2024. These are the first signs that show a rebound from a very low level —which came to worry bankers and businessmen— who the entities hope will be consolidated in the coming months.

The entities attribute this change to demand, which had been stagnant. But the truth is that this rebound has coincided with the first signs that the European Central Bank’s interest rates are going to lower (BCE) and with the aggressive offers that banks have begun to launch in businesses such as mortgages.

The latest figures of Bank of Spain reflect this change in trend. The banks signed 5,128 million in new mortgages during the month of December, practically the same figure as in the same month of 2022 and the best month since summer. Last year’s monthly average was 4.7 billion, compared to 5.4 billion in 2022.

In consumption y companies, bank activity also ended strong. In fact, in the business segment, December was the best month since July 2022, with 35,851 million lent. From Sabadell, one of the leading banks in this market, they believe that there is a lot “embalmed demand” In this niche that will emerge if rates drop somewhat, there is economic stability and the European NextGen funds pick up speed.

The business at stake

This reactivation is key for banks, since the fall in credit hurts them in the medium and long term. lNew production slowed down by 7% last yearwith special strength in mortgages (-13%) and companies (-7%), while consumer financing grew. This situation was inevitable, since it was what the ECB was looking for with the rate increases, but there was already some tension in the entities for the market to revive. For this reason, they began to make aggressive mortgage offers at the end of last year, with some already below 3% at a fixed rate.

“At the end of last year we began to see net growth in the portfolio, something that is being confirmed in January, so we expect growth in the first quarter. The commercial dynamics are positive, consumption is strong,” he stated. Ana Botínpresident of Santander, at the results press conference.

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From BBVA “They were somewhat more cautious, since after a 2023 in which it has been the bank that has tightened the most in the mortgage business (it grew by 40% after exiting the market in 2022), they expect a 2024 of slightly negative growth,”unless rates go down“said its CEO, Onur Genç.

For his part, the CEO of Banco Sabadell, César González-Buenoalso recognized a certain change in the credit market, but without wanting to ring the bells: “We expect very moderate growth, almost flat, another thing is that this is the flat [de los presupuestos] where we hope to make more mistakes.

What all bankers agree on is that for the credit market to be reactivated, something fundamental for the economy, there are two necessary issues: that rates be stabilized at a reasonable level and that there be legal security, for which the extraordinary tax does not help. “What we have to do is encourage investments and greater productivity in the economy. And investments must be financed,” he explained. Carlos Torrespresident of BBVA.

At the bank you will green shoots on credit. After months of drought, the tap was opened again at the end of last year and has continued at the start of 2024. These are the first signs that show a rebound from a very low level —which came to worry bankers and businessmen— who the entities hope will be consolidated in the coming months.

2024-02-02 08:46:06
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