The mobility, which is still not progress, in Greek-Turkish and Cypriot has irritated the “patriotic” front. Before this wave swells in view of the visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Athens, on November 8, the Prime Minister made sure to make it clear to everyone, especially within the ND, that no differentiation of party leadership and no undermining of the dialogue effort with Turkey will be tolerated.
The double front of the government in Greek-Turkish
Undoubtedly, the government faces a double front, equally corrosive, from the right and internally, with the two former prime ministers Costas Karamanlis and Antonis Samaras to disagree with the Greek-Turkish dialogue, just like the former President of the Republic Prokopis Pavlopoulos. Inside the Parliamentary Group, the atmosphere is getting worse, as the ministers who are in charge of “massaging” the MPs find out.
Participation is low and complaints are high. Among them, apart from accuracy, Migration occupies a prominent position, which if combined with Greek-Turkish threatens to create a dangerous mixture. “It’s another matter for the MPs to ask questions about the accuracy, which to a certain extent also pressures the ministers to do more”, comment government sources, “and another to adhere to notions of docility.”
In the government, they avoid commenting on the former prime ministers, even though last Wednesday, at an event in Cyprus, Samaras formulated clear points against the “calm waters”, which “when they lead to tacit acceptance of accomplishments they always bring enormous storms.”
The placement of Samaras, while the president Nikos Christodoulidis was outside of Cyprus, caused various reactions in Megalonisos. Some have praised him and others have accused him of aligning himself with those who at heart support partition. Christodoulidis, at the same time, was in New York, for the tripartite under him Antonio Guterres.
Two lines from Turkey
The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs appears with two lines, the hard one of the deep state, which is led by the former ambassador of the country in Athens and current director general of the ministry Burak Ozugerginand a more transactional one represented by Hakan Fidan. The first after the Crans Montana shipwreck, supports the two-state solution in Cyprus and sets the recognition of sovereign equality as a condition for any dialogue.
It seems, however, that the Greek side has convinced the Turkish side that domestic sovereignty can be decoupled from international personality, in a Scotland-style model. This idea made it easier for Fidan to allow Tatar to go to New York, which until the last moment seemed very difficult, according to sources with knowledge of the background.
In Athens they are preparing for the arrival of Fidan, believing that it will contribute to the positive atmosphere. “otherwise”observe diplomatic sources, “Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan would not agree to its implementation during his meeting with Mitsotakis, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.” On both sides of the Aegean there are no illusions that Greece and Turkey are close to an agreement.
THE George Gerapetritis repeatedly states that what will be explored is whether there can be a common framework for the discussion to proceed to the stage concerning the delimitation of the continental shelf and EEZ. “We’re not there yet” clarifies.
Another approach
Indeed, because Greece insists that with Turkey there is only one dispute to be negotiated and Turkey, through Erdogan himself last week, insists on “holistic approach”, that is, all her requests at the same time on the dialog table.
The Greek foreign minister feels the division that, to a lesser or greater degree, depending on the period, his other predecessors also experienced. “Today Greece is stronger than ever internationally”, states, “we have the confidence to discuss even difficult issues.”
Internally, the “Greece of self-confidence” is perceived by a section of public opinion as “Greece of docility”. Will the government be able to take the next step if the climate becomes warlike, even if it itself assures that nothing will be done without safeguarding national interests and the consent of the political world and society? Erdogan also has similar problems, albeit to a lesser extent.
Although nationalists are part of his government and Turkish analysts believe he has already secured their consent, various far-right forces are increasingly critical of rapprochement with Greece. At the moment their intervention is small.
In Greece, many are questioning whether the Turkish president is in a sincere mood for appeasement. “Turkey approaches the issues from a more realistic and pragmatic point of view. A leader’s personal honesty is not as important as whether he is moving steadily in one direction. Right now, Erdogan is not backing down, and that is enough.” comments o Mustafa AydinProfessor of International Relations at Kadir Has University.
Ankara’s policy change
In his view, the civil war in Syria greatly affected Turkey’s foreign policy, the government prioritized the show of force everywhere, not only vis-a-vis Greece. “That cost her, and in the last year and a half there is a tendency to change the foreign policy and an effort to explore the possibility of re-approachment with several countries, including Israel, the US, Greece, et al. With some things turned out well, like with the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, with Israel not as expected because the war broke out. This is the big picture and the re-approach should be understood as something more structural, not something ad hoc.” notes.
Another Turkish source estimates that if there is finally an agreement, Erdogan is politically strong enough to manage the situation inside his country and enforce it. “There will be no opposition from the nationalists, who in the early 2000s were strong but now co-govern, nor will the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Kemalists, be completely opposed to an agreement, especially if there is a prospect of implementing the International Law and recourse to international jurisdiction” observes.
In general, there is an impression that the “Blue Homeland” doctrine will not be an obstacle. “Erdogan has not been using this narrative lately and has isolated those pushing this agenda” says Aydin. “However, feelings remain and the feeling that we should defend our interests at sea is widely held. I believe both leaders will need to prepare their public opinion. If they don’t, it can turn against them» he adds.
In various circles in Athens, there is the thought that Erdogan is now taking care of his political legacy and that is why he is choosing calmer waters. In Turkey, no one has this image, on the contrary, they think that he will claim another term. “If Erdogan took care of his legacy, it would be about the interior of the country, what kind of state he will hand over to the next generation.” our interlocutors explain. At this stage the situation is very sensitive and very fluid. Even factors unrelated to the two countries can have a negative effect, such as the possibility of establishing a Kurdish state in Syria, which Turkey rejects, but which affects its way of thinking about security in the region.
#GreekTurkish #Hawks #doves #Aegean #calm #waters #underground #currents
