It is difficult to get a picture of the Russian advance on the second day of the war in Ukraine. “The situation is fluid,” confirms Frans Osinga, professor by special appointment of War Studies, who is affiliated with the Netherlands Defense Academy and Leiden University.
Osinga says Russia dealt a major blow on day one by taking control of Ukrainian airspace, but that doesn’t mean it’s a walk over for the Russians.
“Russia has to deal with a vicious and well-organized opponent, who has prepared well,” said Osinga. He rates the Ukrainian army much higher than the Iraqi army that had to stop the American advance towards Baghdad in 2003. The Americans also had to deal with easier, flat terrain there.
Fall Kiev doesn’t seem imminent
According to Osinga, it is true that Russian units were 9 kilometers from the center of the capital Kiev today, but that does not mean that the fall of the Ukrainian capital is imminent. These were advanced troops, the main force is still 50 kilometers from Kiev.
Importantly, the Russians failed to take the Antonov cargo airfield near Kiev yesterday. At first this seemed to work quickly, but then they encountered fierce resistance. The airport is now said to be in Russian hands, but the Ukrainians have disabled the runways.
How they did that is unclear. “It can be done with mines, concrete obstacles and mortar shells, which have created holes in the runways”.
Leading troops
The bottom line is that the Russians are still unable to supply large numbers of troops because of this. In order to do that safely, they would also need to control the area surrounding the airport.
Also on the roads to Kiev, obstacles have been erected to stop the Russian advance and bridges have been destroyed, for example. “It is really 160 kilometers of difficult terrain,” says Osinga about the route from the border to the capital. He also points out that Russia may control the airspace, but that does not mean that helicopters or fighter planes can fly low. “Then they have to deal with anti-aircraft guns, rocket launchers and the like.”
That does not alter the fact that Russia can harass Kiev from a great distance. Mayor Klitschko warned the residents of Kiev tonight that the night ahead will be very difficult.
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