Gray Rhino and Black Swan[횡설수설/장택동]

-Everyone knows it’s a risk factor, but it’s often overlooked without paying attention to a crisis in the future. It is expressed as a’gray rhino’ by analogy. Everyone knows that the gray rhino is a dangerous animal, although it is large, but it has a sharp body and has sharp horns, but the idea is that if you ignore it and approach it, you may face a crisis. It is also used in contrast to the’Black Swan (Black Swan)’, which is an unpredictable crisis.

▷Gray rhinoceros was used for the first time by Michelle Booker at the 2013 World Economic Forum (WEF) and has been frequently used as an expression to compare the seriousness of problems such as Chinese state and corporate debt. The Chinese government also often uses the expression gray rhinoceros. On the 28th of last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered the party to “prepare well for the various black swan and gray rhino incidents.” It seems that it emphasized the response to the US-China conflict and expanded liquidity. He mentioned the black swan and the gray rhino two years ago, wary of slowing economic growth.

▷ Was the Corona 19 incident a black swan or a gray rhino? It was difficult to predict that a specific virus called Corona 19 would occur, but it has been predicted that a strong pandemic will occur one day, so many estimates are closer to the gray rhino. Nevertheless, they were not sufficiently prepared, and even after the spread of Corona 19, various countries responded lukewarmly, causing damage. “The lessons of the coronavirus outbreak show how foolish it is to ignore the risk factors of great probability and impact” (the British economist) is stinging.

▷Korea is no exception. In order to solve the problem of shortage of personnel and facilities to respond to infectious diseases during the H1N1 flu and MERS, the’National Defense System Reorganization Plan’ was prepared, but the same problem was rekindled when Corona 19 spread. The correctional facility is considered to be a representative place of 3mils (dense, close, airtight), which indicates the optimal conditions for the spread of Corona 19, but the eastern detention center in Seoul did not even properly provide masks to prisoners, and eventually more than 1,200 confirmed cases occurred. Although we knew that there was a high possibility of spreading in religious facilities, we could not prevent group infections from occurring in Shincheonji Church, Sarangjeil Church, and IM Mission. ▷ Infectious diseases can spread at any time if weak rings remain, such as a dam that collapses due to a small hole. It was an exemplary country for quarantine in the early days of Corona 19, but it could find precedents in foreign countries, such as Singapore, where the corona outbreak quickly occurred because it could not prevent infection in foreign workers’ accommodations. In order to accelerate the time to escape from Corona 19, we must first look at whether there is another gray rhino around us. Editorial Writer Jang Taek-dong [email protected]