Grand Paris Express: how have prices changed around stations since the launch of the project?

What if the construction of Grand Paris Express stations… had (for now) no impact on real estate prices? This is in any case the thesis defended by the notaries of Greater Paris. In an unpublished study, the notaries compared the evolution of prices within a perimeter of 800 meters around the stations, then within a radius of 1,500 meters since 2008, the year the project was adopted by the Regional Council. Result: housing prices are changing on average almost as fast in neighborhoods close to stations (+57.7% on average between 2008 and 2021) and in more distant neighborhoods (+60.8% on average). “These results continue to surprise”, testify the notaries, who admitted to expecting that the promise of a new station will boost local real estate prices. Nevertheless, they justify, “urban restructuring is progressive, it is accompanied by nuisances probably differing from the phenomenon of valuation.” Clearly, according to them, the increases have certainly not yet taken place… but should logically end up happening, provided that the new lines actually make these neighborhoods more attractive.

Prices that double around Saint-Ouen RER, and stable around Bondy

Whether or not this is the consequence of the arrival of future stations, prices have however soared in most municipalities. However, knowing these developments makes it possible to identify the added value around each station… Crucial information for investors who are betting on the entry into service of new lines to further enhance their accommodation. This is why the notaries have detailed for Capital the changes in prices station by station around all future stops on lines 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18. These changes, of course, unfortunately do not make it possible to anticipate future increases in these neighborhoods. However, they already allow you to check whether buyers in these cities have already made good deals… We present them to you here.

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The owners thus note that according to the city where they invested, the value of their housing could as well have doubled in 13 years… or regressed slightly. For example, buyers who bet on the increased attractiveness of the Saint-Ouen RER district saw the value of their property increase by an average of 109%! More generally, the owners scattered around the northern extension of line 14 generally benefit from attractive capital gains: +99.4% average price increase around Mairie de Saint-Ouen, +85.4% around Porte de Clichy, or even +82.8% around Saint-Denis Pleyel. “With the opening of the extension of line 14, from Saint-Lazare to Mairie de Saint-Ouen on December 14, 2020, the first stations of Greater Paris have emerged from the ground for almost a year”, contextualize the notaries. “The benefit for the inhabitants of these new means of transport becomes concrete” they add. Including, obviously, on local real estate prices.

Conversely, some neighborhoods have not yet observed any price increases that would be linked to the opening up promised by the Grand Paris express. For example, around Bondy, prices only increased on average by… 0.9% between 2008 and 2021. Around the future Le Vert de Maisons station (Maisons-Alfort), prices only increased by +7.5% over the period, and +13.2% around Bobigny Pablo Picasso. Prices even fell downright between 2008 and 2021 around the future Sevran-Beaudottes station (-6.5% on average) and around Bry-Villiers-Champigny (-1.5%).

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