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Grain prices: Here comes the glass ball for the new harvest

The global corn harvest for 2021/22 assumes a significantly larger production and a rapidly growing consumption as well as larger end stocks. Corn production is forecast at a new record level, with the greatest increases expected in the USA, Brazil, China, Ukraine and Argentina.

Global corn consumption is also expected to increase significantly by 3 percent. According to the USDA, the largest increases in corn imports are recorded by the EU, Turkey, Iran, Japan and Mexico. Global corn stocks are 3 percent higher year over year, with increases expected for the US and the world.

Without China, corn inventories were up 10 percent year over year. For China, total imports of coarse grains are projected to be 46.3 million tons, an increase of 3.1 million from 2020/21, and if this is realized it would be a new record high.

Corn and other energy feed prices in China are expected to remain very high despite an increase in corn production. Among China’s coarse grain imports, corn imports are forecast at 26.0 million tons, barley at 10.0 million tons and sorghum at 10.0 million tons.

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