Estimates earlier this spring put GDP growth at 2.8%. this year and 3.4 percent next year, so we can talk about the acceleration of the Polish economy expected by the Commission.
The GDP forecast from the EC (3% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025) is equal to recent estimates for Poland by Fitch. The S&P group has worse expectations for the next year, as it gives us a view of only 3.2%. grow Next year, the Polish economy will be driven by public investments financed by the EU and investments for reconstruction after the flood in September. The negative impact of net exports is expected to diminish due to the rebound in demand for Polish products among Poland’s main EU partners.
On the other hand, a negative signal came from hard data on Thursday, because The Central Statistics Office said the economy slowed to +2.7%. in the third quarter and it was below the predictions.
According to the EC, after its rebound in 2024, Poland’s GDP is expected to grow at an even faster pace in 2025 (+3.6% y/y). Analysts predict that growth will be supported by strong private consumption and investment, while net exports will burden the economy. According to the EC, GDP growth will decrease to 3.1% in 2026.
At the very beginning of the EU
This year, according to EC forecasts, Croatia, Cyprus (+3.6% yoy) and Malta (+5%) are expected to develop faster than Poland in the EU. In 2025, we will be the third fastest growing country in the EU, and only Malta (+4.3% y/y) and Ireland (+4%) will overtake us. It is expected to be similar in 2026, when our growth will be 3.1%. to rank third after Malta (+4.3% y/y) and Ireland (+3.6%).
For the EU as a whole, the autumn forecast predicts real GDP growth in 2024 at 0.9%. and 0.8 percent in the euro zone. In the case of the EU it is 0.1 percentage points. less than in the spring, and in the euro zone it remained unchanged. For Germany, the EC predicts a GDP decline of 0.1%. this year, but an increase of 0.7 percent. next year and 1.4 percent. in the next one.
GDP in the EU will increase by 1.5%. in 2025 for reasons similar to Poland, as “consumption accelerates and investments are expected to recover from the 2024 recession.” – wrote the EC analysis. According to analysts, families are currently holding back on spending and saving part of their growing income. The savings rate was 14.8 percent. – above expectations.
Polish inflation is decreasing
European Commission At the same time, he lowered the inflation forecast in Poland for 2024 from 4.3%. to 3.8%, but it increased for 2025 from 4.2%. up to 4.7 percent The increase next year is due to a planned “no freeze on energy prices”.
EU officials also predict that the unemployment rate in Poland in 2025 will remain below 3%. The state debt is expected to increase to 58.9%. next year, ie close to the EU benchmark for Poland (60%), and in 2026 it will exceed this benchmark (62.4% of GDP). The state budget balance is also to be above the deficit benchmark (3% of GDP) in 2024-2026. In 2026, the deficit in the state’s finances is expected to fall to 5.3%. GDP.
EC forecasts for Poland from November 24
|
European Commission
2024-11-15 09:57:00
#Good #predictions #European #Commission #Polish #economy #accelerating
