The world is moving forward, the word is up to the Cabinet
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Over the past two days, quotations for gasoline in Europe have fallen by $200/t, for diesel – by $340/t. Or 15-20%!
It looks like fears about an embargo against Russia have disappeared. The world is getting used to the idea of a future without bloody hydrocarbons. The signal for the decline was apparently the statements of the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela and the United States with calls to increase oil production.
For us, this is certainly good news. If yesterday the increase in prices at gas stations to UAH 50 and above was not in doubt, now theoretically this can be avoided. And with the active actions of the government and the Rada – to dive under 40 UAH / liter.
Calculations show that under the new conditions, the cost of delivery at current world prices is UAH 43 per liter for both products. Let’s add here the mark-up of 4.5 and 5 UAH/l established by the Ministry of Economy and get the cost at the gas station.
But the problem is that as long as the pre-war calculation formula is in effect, designed for Russian-Belarusian deliveries. And it shows a maximum of UAH 43 in the second decade of March, but with an extra charge. This means that every «European” liter will cost suppliers the same minus 4.5−5 UAH/l.
For example: on the wholesale market, diesel fuel today costs 42 UAH/l, while «recommended” price at filling stations — UAH 36/l. For the second decade of March, the Mineko formula will show a maximum of 43 UAH / l, but who will trade and carry fuel in such conditions?
A decision is needed to abolish VAT and excise, as well as to revise the marginal price formula. In this case, prices will be 32 and 35 UAH/l for gasoline and diesel fuel. And most importantly, the floodgates for new supplies will open.
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