Since November 16, a liter of petrol or diesel has become more expensive. And for good reason, it benefits from just 10 cents of the government rebate instead of the 30 cents instituted on September 1st. Knowing that these 10 cents will be deducted from next January 1, we can expect a new mechanical increase in fuel prices in our country at that time. However, the increase observed in recent days in French pumps is less significant than expected, with a difference of less than 20 cents lost in this drop in the government discount.
This modest increase is undoubtedly partly explained by the current state of the price per barrel of oil. After peaking below $83 last Monday, Brent currently remains low (under $90). Fresh slowdowns in activity in China, still hampered by its shutdowns related to its radical policy on handling the coronavirus crisis, may partly explain this level of low oil price (as this limits its oil consumption). More generally, the pessimistic forecasts on the state of world demand are limiting the rise in the price of oil and are even increasing the oil stocks available on ships that currently ply all the oceans of the globe (to their highest levels since May 2020).
Another disaster at the pump?
Even if OPEC+’s recent reduction in production levels does not help keep oil prices cheap, the current global situation would therefore be more likely to avoid outbreak scenarios like the one in early 2022. D especially in view of the relative relaxation of diplomatic relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. So, won’t we even pay attention to the total disappearance of the government rebate when we fill up on fuel in early 2023? Everything will mainly depend on the state of demand from now on and on the situation in China, whose economic activities are voracious of oil.
