Gold’s next destination after the 2000 level Investing.com

· Prices rose on Thursday from the low of 1956 to the high of 1988.

· Prices rose on Friday from the low of 1980 to the high of 1994.

· Prices rose from yesterday’s bottom, Monday, 1965, to today’s top, 2007.

· We witnessed all of these previous rises without witnessing a direct driver or influence on the markets.

If the hypothetical answer is that prices react to tensions, then why did oil prices not react? Why did we not see negativity on the indicators? Why are we witnessing a clear weakness in what we have become accustomed to in recent tensions as a safe haven?

· So it seems that the story does not start from a safe haven point… because it is also illogical if the matter is related to a safe haven for gold to quickly lose its luster on Friday and retreat to test the bottom from which prices started.

Gold… details and numbers

Gold rose from the bottom of October 10 to the peak of October also by 11% due to the tensions that activated gold’s role as a safe haven.

It is also surprising that gold alone was affected by the role of a safe haven… while, for example, the indicators did not show the state of anxiety that would have been logical for the stock market to appear… which means that there is a somewhat illogical situation.

We have witnessed several peaks so far near the 2010 level… and these peaks have so far been unable to maintain price gains… even with the closing on Friday 10/27/2023 at approximately the 2006 level.

– In other words… the market maker was able to manipulate the axioms… closing higher than the 2000 level… tensions continue… there was a consensus that gold was on its way to new price peaks… and here the market maker intervened to turn things upside down.

– All of the above does not mean that the rise came without actual trading volume. On the contrary, there was a large and clear trading volume. We will review it in the next paragraph.

Futures and options contracts

· Futures contracts. Although the trading volume was somewhat logical and proportional, we did not witness widespread demand or very large volumes as shown in the chart above.

· It is also noted that the centers are continuous [المفتوحة] It remained almost constant at the same average without witnessing significant differences.

· This, in one way or another, gives us an additional confirmation signal that the price increases were not the result of activating the safe haven position.

· It even gives us additional indications that price increases are not aimed at the long term, and therefore we have not witnessed a significant increase in net open positions.

· Options contracts show daily trading volumes lower than the previous average trading volumes.

· However, it is noted that the volume of continuous contracts increased gradually and continuously, as shown in the dark colored graph.

· Continuing contracts increased [مقدّرة باللوت] From 938,000 on 10/26/2023… reaching 1,080,000 yesterday, 11/20/2023.

· That is, the volume of continuous options contracts increased by more than 15% during the aforementioned period.

· Options contracts primarily mean speculation on gold… especially since they require less capital, which means larger quantities… or greater financial freedom for adults… Therefore, we find that other markets were not affected by the rise in gold prices, because they came mainly from options contracts.

Gold…fundamentally and technically

We begin where we left off in our follow-up of options contracts. It seems that options traders are not interested in major selling positions above the 2000 level. Therefore, the details and data show that the pending orders to sell in options contracts above the 2000 level are very limited and can be said to be marginal. .

– The additional buying positions that options traders are waiting for are respectively 2000 | 2025 | 2035 | 2075 | 2100.

This explains that we witnessed an accelerating positive momentum at the 2000 level… pushing prices to test a level near 2008… because purchasing speculation in options contracts was concentrated at the 2000 level.

Prices are also expected to witness a clear positive momentum with each test of the levels mentioned above.

The absence of selling positions higher than the 2000 level for options contracts does not mean absolute positivity. It means that speculators are still betting on more price gains. But beware lest they begin to abandon the positions that were added recently.

Technically, the 2003-2004 level is the last technical level that is considered an important resistance for prices. Therefore, during today’s trading, we also witnessed a temporary breakthrough. [وهميا] The highest level and a return to stability at the bottom again.

– Technically, price stability below the mentioned level means that prices are more inclined towards decline.

– Essentially, we have the US Federal Reserve minutes that will be issued shortly, and its direct impact is usually limited, but it makes a difference in directing prices later.

It should also be remembered that markets have early closures on Thursday and Friday due to the American market holiday.

The bottom line

· Details of the weekly analysis of gold in the video attached at the end of the article.

· The current rise in gold prices so far is a rise in price speculation.

· Below the 2003-2004 level means that negativity is the closest to controlling prices.

· In other words, the border between negativity and positivity is this level. Below is negative control. Above is the balance of positivity.

· The Federal Reserve minutes, although its impact is limited… but its impact comes gradually on the markets in general.

· Durable goods orders tomorrow are expected to be important and influencing the markets. Estimated data indicate a decline from the previous reading. However, the American economy recently surprised the estimated data in terms of positive performance in general. Therefore, do not rule out the possibility of a positive surprise.

· Following up on the details of options contract positions seems important in the current period… because these contracts seem to be the current controller of price behavior.

We will follow up with you on price fluctuations in the upcoming articles, and for more rapid and continuous updates, you can follow

My account on the X platform [تويتر]

@GhaithAbohlal

Where you can interact through comments at any time

A reminder in the margin of the article:

. Trading markets always fluctuate in their direction, and depend on a lot of data and news, in addition to major banks and market makers who often direct the market, even contrary to reality and logic sometimes.

. The opinions and ideas above are a summary of the analysis, and they are not direct recommendations, but rather advice for followers, taking into account that no one is able to profit continuously from trading operations, even large investors.

. Therefore, we always strive to reduce losses and increase profits in accordance with the analysis and point of view of the method of trading prices, by applying many combined and intersecting analysis methods to try to reach the best results.

. We have to work hard, and God is the Grantor of success.