On March 27, 2023, Goldman Sachs reported a study showing that An estimated 300 million global workers are at risk of losing their jobs because of artificial intelligence.
Thirty-four years ago, the magazine “rival” published an article on “5 technologies and 76 occupations” The author’s article is a long series of 11 chapters looking at the role and impact of “5 technologies of the future” on human occupation. At the turn of the twentieth century with the twenty-first century
“Believe, think and act like science” Today, I would like to take the reader to “look at” the main contents of the Goldman Sachs report and go “Update” the latest of “5 technologies of the future” That there is still a benefit or not?
Bad news for 300 million jobs from Goldman Sachs!
Each report titled “The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth” focuses in particular on the impact of generative AI or generative artificial intelligence on work. There is no word in Thai yet, but today, the author would like to call it a transliteration. Generative AI or Generative Artificial Intelligence
Generative AI is the latest development in artificial intelligence that is being “watch” Looking from different circles “excited” and “worry” because it is a potential artificial intelligence able to create new workpieces from the input data. Whether it’s text, articles, pictures and creative works such as composing songs, poems, plays, computer code (computer code), computer games, videos, singing, acting as a “host” on radio and television.
Including the creation of academic works such as academic articles at the postgraduate level. Scientific Academic Calibration Professional exams such as law
Nowadays, there is a generic AI that is being opened to a large number of customers. (counting in the hundreds), but that are being particularly mentioned and “pointed” in the Goldman Sachs report are: Chat GTP (chat GTP) of OpenAI (OpenAI) Backed by Bill Gates’ Microsoft, generic AI already does the job. “Most Progressive” Among all the generic AIs currently available.
Chat GTP was launched on November 30, 2022, reaching a record of one million views in five days and 100 million in two months, with the latest version, GPT-4. March 2023
According to Goldman Sachs, as a whole, generic AI puts 300 million global jobs at risk of displacement.
But the risk of being taken away by artificial intelligence It’s different in the type of work and economic status of the country.
Types of jobs that are most at risk of being taken from work are:The type of work uses knowledge and skills from education and training. which can be replaced by a computer
partleast risky job is labor-intensive work and specific experience in care and maintenance
The five countries that Goldman Sachs lists as the most at risk are: Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Sweden and the United States.
5 countries identified as The lowest risk is Mainland China, Nigeria, Vietnam, Kenya and India.
And what about European countries?
Although European countries are not among the top 5 countries with the highest risk, overall, the United States andeurope unite will be the group of countries most affected by artificial intelligence technology, ie about two-thirds of jobs currently available. It is at risk of being partially replaced, but about a quarter of it could be completely replaced by full artificial intelligence.
In this regard, there is in-depth information only in the United States into the 5 types of jobs with the highest risk. will be taken away by computer as follows:
(1) Office work The highest risk is 46%.
(2) legal work There is a secondary risk, 44%.
(3) Architecture and engineering work 33%
(4) Biological, physical and social science work 36%
(5) Business and financial management, finishing the top 5, the highest risk rating is 35%.
on the contrary For the United States, the lowest 1% of jobs displaced by computers are building cleaning jobs. and maintenance work Installation, maintenance and repair work It was the second lowest risk job at 4%, with construction and extraction jobs ranking the third lowest risk at 6%.
Artificial intelligence is not only bad news!
Even though the Goldman Sachs report is famous around the world. will be bad news But there’s also positive news about the role artificial intelligence plays in real people’s careers.
According to Goldman Sachs, although artificial intelligence technology will cause jobs that are done by real people to shrink, but at the same time From the history of the development of new technologies, artificial intelligence technology will cause “good things” for the work of human beings up to 2 things
one is to create new jobs for human beings to be “person” making new technologies work more efficiently
two is to make “human” have “time” more in working to create new things come up concretely As reported by Goldman Sachs, artificial intelligence replaces humans. It will increase productivity and work efficiency, which may result in GDP (GDP) or Gross World Product. increasing about 7% per year for ten years
5 technologies of the future with 76 jobs!
in the year 1970 Alvin Toffler Published a book called Future Shock and made the whole world Both scared and panicked at the words “Future Shock”
Alvin Toffler defined future shock as “feeling state” of human beings to face “Change too much and too quickly. until human beings are unable to prepare themselves in time.”
The root cause of the future shock, according to Alvin Toffler, is the rapid advancement of technology playing a role in every area of human life.
After reading Future Shock, the author expanded his academic interests. (that is pure science) to include the role and impact of science and technology on human beings.
The author was given a question by answering a question in a magazine. on radio and television programs in special lectures Specify the technology that the author sees. will have a special role and impact on humans in the future During the transition into the twenty-first century
The results that the author concludes are “5 technologies of the future” and has written a series of 11 long articles in the column “To the Future with Technology” of the magazine “rival” A total of 11 issues from the March 1989 issue until the end of the series which Media Focus Publishing has published as a book in the same name from the magazine as “5 technologies and 76 occupations” First published March 1991.
5 technologies that the author has compiled, analyzed and synthesized By setting a time frame in the future for about 10-20 years ahead (from the year 1989 or 1989 that started writing), which meansThe transition period into the twenty-first century and about 10 years later in the early twenty-first century
In writing the series of articles “5 Technologies and 76 Occupations”, the author chose to mention roles. and the impact of technology on human “careers”.
The author analyzed it as a whole. “bad news” and “good news” of technology per career
5 What are the technologies of the future?
(1) computers and electronics
(2) computer robot
(3) Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering
(4) materials science
(5) laser
In connection with our story today which is about the impact of artificial intelligence technology on careers The author would like to raise the author’s conclusions in 5 technologies and 76 careers to mention only in the part of computer technology that This is bad news for 10 occupations such as clerks, typists, office workers, lawyers, etc.
part that isgood newsThere are 13 occupations mentioned by the author, such as information sales professionals, artificial intelligence system specialists, computer crime specialists, etc.
Already in the number of 76 occupations mentioned by the author It’s bad news – good news. How much or less?
5 technologies and 76 jobs updated!
From the year 1989 to the present, 2023, 34 years have passed!
in the column “For The Future” Journal of Research and Innovation Community January-March 2021 issue ofOffice of the Science, Research and Innovation Promotion Commission (TSRI) That was about two years ago. Publish an article by the author named “5 Future Technology Updates” To explore and verify what the author “looked at” 32 years ago, how is it?
The conclusion that the author sees is all 5 technologies that the author has mentioned. played a role and also “Importance” further up to now and the foreseeable future, to the middle of the twenty-first century.
From 5 technologies and 76 occupations to artificial intelligence technology that threatens 300 million workers!
Meaningful Related Comparisons of “5 technologies and 76 occupations” Part of the Goldman Sachs report is the role and impact of computer technology and artificial intelligence.
By Goldman Sachs, focusing on Generative Artificial Intelligence, the five technologies and 76 occupations are Computing and Artificial Intelligence as a whole.
The effects that the authors consider threatened (i.e. “bad news” for 5 technologies and 76 jobs) were largely “yet” in line with the Goldman Sachs report, for example, the jobs most threatened were jobs. Administrative and accounting (financial) and there are also legal jobs, i.e. the profession of a lawyer.
But the difference is that the Goldman Sachs report includes “Number of positions” is “number of people” who are at risk of being replaced by generic artificial intelligence And it’s the part that is “highlighted” as news around the world.
while the part is “good news” of the report, for example that artificial intelligence technology will boost global economic growth by about 7% per year, is not correct. “Highlight” In various reports
Responding to the Goldman Sachs report and Elon Musk’s opposite position with Bill Gates.
For scientists and experts in artificial intelligence Most listened carefully to the Goldman Sachs report because of its credibility.
But there are opinions “warn” receiver “Don’t panic” too much, or “deny” suddenly
Elon Musk Co-Founder of OpenAI but has withdrawn from open AI show anxiety about the undesirable effects of new generation of artificial intelligence technology especially generic AI
On March 22, 2023 Elon Musk issue an open letter “Pause Giant AI Experiment” (Stop experimenting with artificial intelligence giants) from his “Future Of Life Institute” urging artificial intelligence developers to stop developing next-generation artificial intelligence technologies such as generative AI for a time. six months To be mindful and create measures to prevent the adverse effects of artificial intelligence technology as much as possible first.
Elon Musk said this open letter was initially Voluntarily requesting cooperation from developers of artificial intelligence technology
But if that doesn’t work, Elon Musk offers a “strong drug” for the government to formally enforce measures.
As of April 11, 2023, the open letter has been signed. more than fifty thousand names
but on the contrary Elon Musk have Bill Gates who became a major sponsor of OpenAI today and is becoming an important voice Supporting the development of generative AI
Bill Gates In an interview with Reuters on April 3, 2023, he objected to the call to halt the development of artificial intelligence technology for six months, saying it was unreasonable and unpracticable.
For most developers of artificial intelligence technology has the same stance on the open letter as Bill Gates.
Are you the reader? What do you think of the Goldman Sachs report?
For the position of Elon Musk and Bill Gates, who do the readers agree with more?
