Investing.com – With gold’s recent record highs, some analysts are saying that the $2,000-an-ounce threshold may soon be crossed. However, there are some opinions that see this as far-fetched, and gold will experience strong declines.
According to Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent, “Gold, which has been trading at a high for 2023 and is currently around $1,930 an ounce, will reverse trend and make a significant drop, entering the biggest crash that can be seen in its second wave before bouncing back up again.” .
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About $900.. Is it possible?
Dent predicts gold will reach as low as 900 an ounce by mid-2024.
He stressed that “gold is not a safe haven.” “I would expect gold to go down to $900 to $1,000. That would be much lower than the other commodities… it’s still a 40 to 45 percent downside from here.”
Dent’s track record for correctly forecasting includes the Japanese asset bubble, the dot-com bubble, and the election of Donald Trump as president in 2016.
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Gold .. a bubble may burst
Dent also said that the “bubble of everything” was made by the Fed’s loose monetary policy, which caused booms in most asset classes, especially equities.
“The boom in stocks from 2009 to late 2021 was 120 percent artificial,” he said. And it was just [بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي] It motivates more and more to keep the stock market going up… This is taking a toxic financial drug, which when it finally goes down and fails, you have a stop.”
He predicted a “massive crash” in an already bear market, once it hits a 2022 low of 10,088.
“I feel like the eventual low at this point for the shares is likely to be … July or so of 2024,” Dent said. “Therefore, we are still in its early stages. To know that this collapse is continuing and will go much deeper, we need to break the last low… which is 10088.”
He added that the “next wave” to the downside will occur once this critical level is reached. From an all-time high, Dent expects the Nasdaq to drop 92 percent and the index to drop 86 percent.
Dent also states that gold will collapse, along with other assets, to $900 an ounce, but will eventually reach $4,000 after the markets recover and the next economic boom.
The Fed can’t fix this
Dent predicted that the Fed, which has raised interest rates by 425 basis points through 2022 in an effort to quell rising prices, would not be able to prevent a market crash.
And he said, “If he turns around [جيروم باول] Focus on this, it would look really silly that he tightens a bit and then has to turn around and go back to easing.” And “That would prove how weak the economy is and make the Fed look reckless.”
He added that the Fed will lose its credibility if it moves towards loose monetary policy.
He said, “By the time the Fed realizes it’s gone too far after overstimulating, and wants stimulus again, it won’t have much credibility.”
Although he indicated that the Fed’s halt to tightening would be “smart”, he claimed that it would not prevent the inevitable crash in stocks.
The next economic superpower
Dent, whose economic analysis revolves around demographic trends, predicted that India would emerge as the next economic superpower in the world due to its growing population and large proportion of young people.
He predicted that “India and Southeast Asia will be much better than China [على المدى الطويل]and “One day, around the 1950s or 1960s, India will be the largest economy in the world and the United States will probably still be a little bit bigger than China.”
Dent also claimed that China’s aging and declining population, along with increased investment in buildings, would weaken its economy over the course of the century.
“China has really peaked in their demographics,” he said. “China will go by 2100, from 1.4 billion people to 770 million. They will be the first emerging country to peak in demographic trends and decline.”
He added that China “overbuilt its economy… 22 percent of their homes and offices are empty. They are also building things to stimulate their economy. They are not printing money. They are printing apartments.”
Gold.. what about it?
Although he predicted a decline in by 2024, Dent said India’s growth bodes well for the long-term outlook. He made particular mention of gold consumption in the country, which is the world’s second largest gold importer.
“If India is the next big thing,” he said, “gold will boom, because Indians buy and use gold for security, jewelry and everything else.” “So gold, for fundamental reasons, is going to do well and go higher in the next boom.”
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