The market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with all three major indexes closing down, with the GEM index leading the decline.
On the market, cyclical stocks continued to be active against the trend, among which gold stocks led the gains, with Laishen Tongling, Jingui Silver, Western Gold, and Zhongrun Resources hitting their daily limit; power stocks collectively strengthened, with Huayin Electric Power, Shennan Electric Power, and Mindong Electric Power , Xichang Electric Power and others reached their daily limit. Smart driving concept stocks once soared, with Haun Automotive, Xingmin Zhitong, Luchang Technology, and Rhema Precision reaching their daily limit. On the downside, photovoltaic concept stocks fell into adjustment.
In terms of sectors, gold, electricity, complete automobiles, and banks were among the top gainers, while dyes, BC batteries, flexible screens, medical equipment and other sectors were among the top losers. Generally speaking, individual stocks fell more than they rose. More than 4,500 stocks in the market fell, and more than 80 stocks fell by more than 9%.
As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.57%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.81%. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 931.4 billion, which was 13.5 billion higher than the previous trading day. The net sales of northbound funds throughout the day were 3.045 billion yuan, of which the net sales of Shanghai Stock Connect were 1.52 billion yuan and the net sales of Shenzhen Stock Connect were 1.525 billion yuan.
01
Precious metals sector breaks out against the trend
Today, the A-share market continues structural differentiation.
On the one hand, cyclical stocks represented by non-ferrous metals once again led the gains in the two cities, with gold, silver, copper and other subdivisions all leading the gains, and speculation extended to oil, gas, electricity and other directions.
The precious metals sector has surged, benefiting from the recent sharp rise in silver and gold prices.
This morning, London gold reached a maximum of 2,354.04 US dollars per ounce, and COMEX gold reached a maximum of 2,372.5 US dollars per ounce, both hitting record highs. In the domestic futures market, the main silver futures contract hit the intraday limit, with an increase of 6.99%, breaking through the 7,000 yuan/ton mark. The main gold futures contract also rose sharply in the morning, with an intraday increase of more than 4%. In terms of the price of pure gold jewelry in domestic gold stores, today, the price of pure gold jewelry in gold stores such as Chow Tai Fook has reached as high as 728 yuan/gram.
Regarding the international gold price, David Rosenberg, a top American economist and president of Rosenberg Research Company, believes that gold’s rise is not over yet. He said this momentum could push gold prices to $3,000 before the next business cycle turn, another 30% gain from current levels. However, most market views believe that the current rise in gold prices is out of touch with fundamentals and has little to do with risk aversion, and there may be fluctuations in the short term.
On the other hand, heavyweight sectors such as liquor, photovoltaics, and innovative drugs have collectively fallen into adjustment.
The sharp decline in liquor stocks may be related to the recent price trend of Moutai. Since the beginning of this year, the wholesale price of Moutai (53% 500ml) has dropped from about 2,700 yuan/bottle at the beginning of the year to about 2,580 yuan/bottle. From a comprehensive market perspective, Moutai’s approved prices continue to decline, perhaps for the following reasons:
First, since March, liquor consumption has been in the off-season, and a certain price reduction is normal; second, 200,000 bottles of 375ml Xunfeng liquor (belonging to the Moutai category) have been sold, and Moutai 375ml (1650 yuan-1700 yuan), 100ml ( 400 yuan-410 yuan) and other products have been released in large quantities, and the prices are obviously more competitive, forcing 500ml Feitian to cut prices; thirdly, Feitian Moutai’s market launch volume in March this year has increased significantly compared with the same period in previous years. In some consumption power Where there are deficiencies, there is oversupply.
However, Kweichow Moutai has responded to the news from the market. According to the Cailian News Agency, Kweichow Moutai said that the planned volume of Xunfeng Liquor accounts for a small proportion of Moutai Liquor’s annual launch and will not have an impact on the price system of Moutai Liquor. The current sales of Moutai Liquor are good.
For the liquor sector, most institutions still maintain confidence. Guotai Junan’s research report pointed out that liquor still shows the characteristics of “double low” expectations and valuation. Standing at the present moment, after nearly three years of trend adjustments in the liquor industry, the valuation bubble has basically been digested by performance. From a vertical perspective, a large number of targets within the industry are already at a “double low” position in terms of expectations and valuations. From a probability perspective, based on ROE, dividend potential and current industry valuation, the value of liquor allocation in 2024 is highlighted, and the expected turning point should be actively grasped in the future.
02
The latest release from the China Securities Regulatory Commission! Involving IPO
Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the 2024 department budget (hereinafter referred to as the “Budget”) on its official website. The total revenue and expenditure budget of the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 2024 is 2.807 billion yuan, an increase of 24.92% from the total revenue and expenditure budget of 2.247 billion yuan announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 2023. The budget disclosed that in 2024, inspections of listed companies, bond issuers, NEEQ-listed companies, and IPO companies will be strengthened.
It is worth noting that the China Securities Regulatory Commission’s 2024 budget has significantly increased IPO inspections. In terms of quantitative indicators, the proportion of organizations deploying initial enterprise inspections shall not be less than 25%. In 2023, the quantitative indicator of this proportion will be no less than 5%.
In fact, the IPO will increase on-site inspections and on-site supervision. This news was discussed in mid-March. According to a report by China Business News at the time, it was reported that many project teams will be notified, especially the proportion of on-site inspections for companies under review will be significantly increased. As for the specific proportion, it may be increased from 5% to 20%. , may also need to be increased to 30%.
At present, the on-site inspection ratio of 25% is in line with previous market expectations.
In addition, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has also mentioned the supervision of various illegal activities in the capital market. The 2024 “Performance Target Table for Law Enforcement Case Handling Expenditure Projects” disclosed that the overall goals for 2024 include seriously investigating fraudulent issuances and resolutely cracking down on behaviors that challenge the bottom line; severely cracking down on the “key minority” organized organizations such as the actual controllers, directors, supervisors, and senior personnel of listed companies. , premeditated implementation of illegal disclosure behaviors such as financial fraud and capital misappropriation; “double investigation” of intermediaries engaged in securities services such as sponsorship and underwriting, audit accounting, legal, and rating, and urging capital market “gatekeepers” to improve their professional quality wait.
In terms of quantitative indicators, the proportion of inspections on key regulatory objects and high-risk areas is no less than 67%. Last year, this indicator was no less than 62.57%.
03
A shares are expected to fluctuate upward
Finally, return to the A-share market. On the first day after the Qingming Festival holiday, the performance of A-shares was not satisfactory, and the three major indexes closed down. Looking back before and after the holiday, what changes have taken place in the market environment? How will the subsequent trend of A shares change?
Regarding the market environment, Huajin Securities believes that the risk factors that were worried before the holiday basically did not occur during the holiday. From the perspective of the three main aspects currently affecting the market:
(1) Real estate sales were weak during the holidays, but travel consumption was booming, and risks related to economic and profit concerns did not appear.
(2) The risk of concerns about the postponement of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has emerged, but domestic liquidity remains loose, and the impact on A-shares after the holiday is limited. First, under the background of domestic economic recovery, the RMB exchange rate has a clear trend of stabilization, and repeated expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have limited impact on domestic easing. Second, based on historical experience, financing, foreign investment and new funds may further return after the holidays.
(3) Concerns about geopolitical risks have not emerged, and risk appetite remains strong after the holiday. First, the presidents of China and the United States had a phone call before the holiday, and the US Treasury Secretary visited China during the holiday. The geopolitical risks that the market was worried about did not appear; second, policy expectations after the holiday are still relatively strong.
As for the subsequent trend of A-shares, Everbright Securities predicts that the A-share market will remain volatile and upward.
The current economy is gradually improving, policies are still active, and corporate profits are expected to continue to rebound, laying a solid foundation for the upward trend of the A-share market. In addition, as U.S. inflation gradually falls, the market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates with a high probability in June. Overseas liquidity is expected to continue to improve, and the valuation of the A-share market is expected to rise. Therefore, overall, with the rebound in corporate profits and the marginal improvement in overseas liquidity, the A-share market is expected to remain resilient.
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Original title: Big news!The latest release from the China Securities Regulatory Commission
2024-04-09 02:56:00
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